What does solar actually pay back in 2026?
The 30% federal residential solar tax credit expired on December 31, 2025. This calculator uses EIA state electricity rates and NREL sun-hour data to estimate payback for residential systems under today's rules — not the rules that expired.
Estimate your solar payback
Enter your ZIP and the system size you're considering. We'll pull your state's average residential electricity rate and an annual sun-hour figure to estimate production and break-even years.
Enter a valid US ZIP to see your estimate.
Browse by state
Each state page shows the average residential electricity rate, sun-hour range, and remaining state-level incentives in plain English.
- Alaska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- District of Columbia
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Iowa
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Mississippi
- Montana
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- New York
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Virginia
- Vermont
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
Read the 2026 guides
- What changed when the 30% federal solar tax credit expired
Section 25D sunset on 2025-12-31. Here's what residential buyers actually lose, and what remains.
- Net metering by state in 2026
Full retail, net billing, avoided cost, or none — a state-by-state map of how your utility values exported solar.
- Solar leases and PPAs vs. owning panels
When a lease makes sense, when it destroys payback, and the lien risk that surprises home sellers.
- Battery storage payback math
Time-of-use arbitrage, NEM 3.0 in California, and when a battery actually earns its $10k+ price tag.
- How to read your utility bill before going solar
Find the four numbers that matter — average kWh, true effective rate, demand charge, and net usage.
- Solar + EV combined ROI math
If you charge an EV at home, every panel pays back faster. Here's the back-of-envelope by miles driven.
Frequently asked questions
- Did the federal solar tax credit really expire?
- Yes. The 30% federal residential solar tax credit under Internal Revenue Code Section 25D sunset on December 31, 2025. Systems placed in service in 2026 and later do not receive the 30% federal credit. State and utility incentives may still apply — see the per-state pages.
- How does the payback estimate work?
- The calculator multiplies your system size (kW) by your state's average peak sun hours per day (from NREL) to estimate annual kWh produced, then values that production at your state's average residential electricity rate (from the EIA). Payback equals installed cost divided by annual savings, adjusted for panel degradation and assumed rate inflation.
- Is this a quote or financial advice?
- No. This is an educational estimator using public EIA and NREL data. Your actual payback depends on installer pricing, roof orientation and shading, your specific utility rate plan and net metering terms, panel degradation, and battery storage choices. Get at least three local quotes before making a financial decision.
- Does this calculator capture battery storage and net metering?
- The base calculator estimates panel-only payback. Battery storage payback and net metering structure (full retail, net billing, avoided cost, or none) vary by state and utility — see the dedicated guides for battery payback math and the state-by-state net metering map.
- Do you collect my personal data?
- No personally identifiable information is collected by the calculator. ZIP codes entered on the home form are processed in your browser. The ZIP drill-down page sends the ZIP server-side to the NREL PVWatts API to model production for your nearest weather station; the ZIP is not stored against any user profile. See the privacy policy for details.