Does a new 2026 installation receive the federal residential solar credit?

No. A system placed in service in 2026 does not qualify for the Residential Clean Energy Credit, so this calculator does not subtract a federal credit. The federal-credit guide quotes the IRS documents on deposits, completion timing and carryforward of unused credit from earlier qualifying property.

How does the payback estimate work?

The state comparison is a common retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast. A custom scenario uses your installed cash price, estimated annual production, avoidable import price, export credit and self-consumption share. The model accumulates annual net cash flow, including the stated degradation, price-escalation, cost and incentive assumptions, over 25 years. The ZIP prefix only suggests a state; confirm the selection. It does not validate an address or identify a utility tariff or roof model.

Why might changing system size leave payback unchanged?

When installed cost and annual production both scale with kW and all other assumptions stay fixed, the size factor cancels. A larger array alone does not imply quicker payback. Use an actual cash-price quote and production estimate, and check how the larger array changes exports and self-consumption.

Does this model simulate batteries and my utility bill?

No hourly battery dispatch or complete utility-bill simulation is performed. Import and export prices are simplified annual inputs; time-of-use periods, minimum bills, demand charges, caps and true-up rules can change the outcome. Including battery cost alone does not establish its benefit. The net-metering and bill-audit guides explain which documents to collect.

Is this a quote or financial advice?

No. Results are educational estimates, not installer offers, guarantees or personalized financial advice. Compare itemized quotes and a roof-specific production report with the applicable utility tariff. Confirm incentive eligibility and timing independently, and test a no-incentive scenario.

Where can I read about data practices?

This site loads Google advertising code, which may process data even on pages without a visible ad. The privacy policy explains what is collected and the choices you have. The worksheet never needs account credentials, tax documents or payment information, so do not enter them.

Check solar payback against the assumptions in your quote

Start with a common state benchmark, then test your installed cash price, production estimate and utility's import and export prices. A state average is a starting point, not a prediction for your roof.

What the model shows before you enter anything

Two results calculated by the same code as the worksheet below. Neither is a forecast for your roof; they show the range of the state benchmark and how much the export credit in a quote can change the answer.

Modelled state benchmark, all 51 records

A 7 kW system at an assumed $3.20/W (an assumed $22,400 cash price), every kWh valued at the state's average EIA residential price (calendar year 2024 annual average), NSRDB sunlight for one location per state, 3% assumed price escalation, 0.5% degradation and no incentives.

Fastest benchmark (Hawaii): 4.1 years
Median benchmark: 13.0 years
Slowest benchmark (Washington): 19.4 years

This ranks average prices and sunlight only. It values every exported kWh at the full retail price; check what your own tariff credits for exports. See every state's benchmark.

Illustrative quote: what the export credit does

An invented household, not a customer: an assumed 10 kW system producing 10,000 kWh in year one, an assumed $30,000 cash price, a 20¢/kWh import price and a 5¢/kWh export credit. Degradation and escalation are set to zero to isolate the tariff effect.

Every kWh valued at 20¢: modelled year-one value $2,000: 15.0 years
40% used at home, the rest exported at 5¢: modelled year-one value $1,100: no break-even inside 25 years

Same panels and the same production; only the value of exported power changes. When exports earn 5¢, this modelled system never breaks even inside the 25-year horizon. Ask which export value a quote assumed. More sensitivities in the methodology.

Check the federal-credit line separately

The IRS Residential Clean Energy Credit pagesays the credit is not available for any property placed in service after December 31, 2025. Its completion-timing FAQexplains why a deposit paid in 2025 does not qualify an installation completed after the cutoff. This calculator does not automatically subtract a federal residential credit from a new 2026 system.

Carryforward of unused credit from qualifying prior property is a different question. Read the IRS document audit and calculated illustrationand confirm your tax facts with a qualified professional. A quote's incentive line is not evidence that you qualify or can use it immediately.

Separate sourced prices from model assumptions

The benchmark electricity prices use calendar year 2024 annual average from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10. Those observed state averages are not your avoidable import price or your export tariff. Installed dollars per watt, performance ratio, degradation and price escalation are modelling assumptions, and sunlight is NSRDB data for one location per state. None of it is a current quote or measured roof production. Read the methodology and input provenancebefore interpreting a precise-looking result.

The default retail-value comparison assigns the same value to all generated electricity and applies no incentive. For a household scenario, use your utility's avoidable import price and export credit, your self-consumption share and a roof-specific production estimate. Test less production, lower export value, no incentives and added costs. No break-even within 25 years is a horizon result, not a prediction that the system never pays back.

Solar cash-flow worksheet

Compare assumed cash flows, not an address-specific forecast. No tariff, roof or incentive eligibility is looked up. Your worksheet entries are calculated in this browser; the worksheet does not send them anywhere or save them between visits. The site also loads Google advertising code; the privacy page explains what that code may collect and your choices.

Optional ZIP prefix hintThe first three digits only suggest a state. A match does not validate a USPS ZIP, address or utility territory.State dataset (confirm or correct)Changing the selected state resets the worksheet assumptions.

Select a state or enter a five-digit ZIP with a mapped prefix to start.

Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See full disclaimer.

Bring the documents to the calculation

Download the solar quote worksheet (CSV). Open it in a spreadsheet, copy it for each quote, and record twelve months of bills, tariff terms, production, cash price and incentive evidence. Blank means unknown, not zero. The worksheet includes clearly marked arithmetic illustrations; replace them with documented inputs for your scenario. Its quote illustration uses the same assumed inputs as the illustrative quote above. Financing and hourly tariff details are separate audit items, not simulated by this cash-payback tool.

Browse by state

These state analyses discuss export rules, incentive conditions and sources to check. The comparison tablecontains the 50 states and DC using common assumptions; a ranking is about the model, not a claim about the best place or project to buy solar.

Compare the 50 states and DC →

Read the 2026 guides

The 2026 federal solar-credit cutoff: an IRS document audit
What Section 25D's 2025 cutoff actually tests, how deposits and unfinished installations are treated, and a worked payback comparison with no phantom 30% credit.
Net metering in 2026: rebuild the estimate from the actual tariff
Why an EIA state average is not your utility rate, how retail netting differs from net billing, and a worksheet that prices self-consumed and exported solar separately.
Audit a solar quote with 12 months of utility bills
A document-first worksheet for annual load, avoidable import price, fixed charges, export value, future loads, and the seller's production model.

Frequently asked questions

Does a new 2026 installation receive the federal residential solar credit?: No. A system placed in service in 2026 does not qualify for the Residential Clean Energy Credit, so this calculator does not subtract a federal credit. The federal-credit guide quotes the IRS documents on deposits, completion timing and carryforward of unused credit from earlier qualifying property.
How does the payback estimate work?: The state comparison is a common retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast. A custom scenario uses your installed cash price, estimated annual production, avoidable import price, export credit and self-consumption share. The model accumulates annual net cash flow, including the stated degradation, price-escalation, cost and incentive assumptions, over 25 years. The ZIP prefix only suggests a state; confirm the selection. It does not validate an address or identify a utility tariff or roof model.
Why might changing system size leave payback unchanged?: When installed cost and annual production both scale with kW and all other assumptions stay fixed, the size factor cancels. A larger array alone does not imply quicker payback. Use an actual cash-price quote and production estimate, and check how the larger array changes exports and self-consumption.
Does this model simulate batteries and my utility bill?: No hourly battery dispatch or complete utility-bill simulation is performed. Import and export prices are simplified annual inputs; time-of-use periods, minimum bills, demand charges, caps and true-up rules can change the outcome. Including battery cost alone does not establish its benefit. The net-metering and bill-audit guides explain which documents to collect.
Is this a quote or financial advice?: No. Results are educational estimates, not installer offers, guarantees or personalized financial advice. Compare itemized quotes and a roof-specific production report with the applicable utility tariff. Confirm incentive eligibility and timing independently, and test a no-incentive scenario.
Where can I read about data practices?: This site loads Google advertising code, which may process data even on pages without a visible ad. The privacy policy explains what is collected and the choices you have. The worksheet never needs account credentials, tax documents or payment information, so do not enter them.