State analysis · source documents checked 2026-09-24
Solar payback in North Carolina (NC) — 2026
North Carolina's Duke Net Metering Bridge riders net energy by billing month and close to new participants on January 1, 2027, or sooner in practice once a utility's 2026 capacity is used.
What decides the answer in North Carolina
The NC Public Staff identifies E-100, Sub 180, the March 23, 2023 order and the May 17 extension: legacy Rider NM closed to new residential applications after September 30, 2023 and RSC/NMB began October 1. Existing Rider NM customers “can remain on Rider NM until December 31, 2026, at which point they will be automatically transitioned to Rider NMB”, which matters to current owners and to anyone buying a house that already has panels. Residential Solar Choice (RSC) requires a time-of-use schedule with critical peak pricing, and under it “Net exports will be credited at the utility's avoided cost rate each month.” Bridge avoids that mandatory schedule, not every charge or every limit. [1]
Each Duke utility publishes its own Bridge rider. Duke Energy Progress (DEP) uses Fourth Revised Leaf 605, effective April 1, 2026 under E-2, Sub 1396 (order March 16, 2026), with a 2026 annual capacity of 43,500 kW AC. Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC) uses Sixth Revised Leaf 143, effective September 1, 2026 under E-7, Sub 1333 (order August 11, 2026), with a 2026 annual capacity of 38,700 kW AC. Both say: “This Rider will be closed to new participants on and after January 1, 2027.” Both also say an applicant who arrives after the year's capacity is met must withdraw and reapply in a later year or take Rider RSC. Neither lists capacity after 2026, so once a utility's 2026 allocation is used up, a new applicant in practice goes to RSC. Remaining 2026 capacity at either utility is not verified here. A Bridge term lasts up to fifteen calendar years from the interconnection application, not from an installer quote. [2] [3]
Page 2 of each rider nets electricity supplied and delivered over the monthly billing period, with each TOU period netted separately. Only the month's remaining net excess earns the Net Excess Energy Credit: 3.94 cents/kWh at DEP and 4.53 cents at DEC. Each adds a monthly Non-Bypassable Charge based on nameplate capacity “in kW DC for solar generation”: 1.16 dollars per kW at DEP and 0.99 dollars at DEC, or 97.44 and 83.16 dollars a year for a 7 kW DC array. The minimum bill on the customer and distribution portion is 28 dollars at DEP and 22 dollars at DEC. The system must not exceed “the estimated maximum monthly demand of the residence or 20 kW AC, whichever is less”. [2] [3]
Because exports first offset same-month imports at the retail price, applying the net-excess rate to every exported kWh understates Bridge value. Valuing every kWh at retail overstates it, because it ignores the non-bypassable charge and any true monthly surplus. The main household rows below use annual averages and do not reproduce monthly netting. Separate DEP and DEC rows approximate monthly netting with an assumed flat monthly load; no row reproduces TOU buckets or the minimum bill. Read an export price well below retail applied to every exported kWh as a low export-value case for Bridge (the minimum bill and the fixed-charge share of the EIA average are not modeled, so actual value can be lower still), and the retail benchmark as a high case. Obtain 12 months of usage data and the actual rider before deciding. [2] [3]
How North Carolina pays for an exported kilowatt-hour
Net metering, subject to eligible charges and surplus settlement. For Duke Bridge customers, separate energy used on site, exports that offset same-month imports, and the remaining net excess credited at 3.94 cents (DEP) or 4.53 cents (DEC). The simple annual self-consumption split does not implement monthly netting, minimum bills, TOU buckets or critical peaks. Other utilities, co-ops and municipal terms are separate and not covered here.
NC Public Staff — net metering — Rider distinction, legacy transition, RSC monthly avoided-cost crediting and territory limits.
Document: E-100, Sub 180; March 23 and May 17, 2023 orders summarized by Public Staff. Effective/source period: Successor residential riders October 1, 2023; legacy NM transition December 31, 2026.
Applies to: Duke residential customers; cooperatives and municipal utilities excluded from this summary. Relevant passage: “These customers can remain on Rider NM until December 31, 2026, at which point they will be automatically transitioned to Rider NMB.”.
Document: NC Fourth Revised Leaf No. 605; E-2, Sub 1396; pp. 1–3 (URL filename differs). Effective/source period: April 1, 2026; order March 16, 2026.
Applies to: DEP North Carolina residential NMB; capacity and nameplate limits apply. Relevant passage: “This Rider will be closed to new participants on and after January 1, 2027.”.
Document: NC Sixth Revised Leaf No. 143; E-7, Sub 1333; pp. 1–3. Effective/source period: September 1, 2026; order August 11, 2026.
Applies to: DEC North Carolina residential NMB; capacity and nameplate limits apply. Relevant passage: “A customer who applies after the Annual Capacity is met must either (a) withdraw the application and submit it again in a subsequent year, or (b) receive service under Residential Solar Choice Rider RSC and an eligible rate schedule.”.
“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.
Common retail-value benchmark — not a household forecast
No incentives; every modeled kWh is valued at the historical state-average retail price. The household scenarios below separate assumed import/export prices, consumption share, cash cost and receipt timing.
How North Carolina compares with the other 50 records in this dataset
Measure
North Carolina
Dataset median
Rank of 51
Avg residential rate
14.13¢/kWh
14.91¢/kWh
34th highest
NSRDB daily sunlight (one location per state)
5.3 kWh/m²/day
4.9 kWh/m²/day
13th highest
Retail benchmark payback
13.0 years
13.0 years
25th fastest on this benchmark
Household scenarios below (range)
14.2 years to 23.1 years
—
Not ranked across states
The rank compares every state on the same full-retail basis; it is a benchmark, not a forecast for a new North Carolina customer. The household scenarios below, each with its own stated import price, export credit, cost and incentive timing, give 14.2 years to 23.1 years.
Rate: Calendar year 2024 annual average, from the EIA. Sunlight is NSRDB data via NLR PVWatts v8 at each state's 2020 Census center of population, one location per state (request settings and the values PVWatts returned are in state-insolation-pvwatts.json). Ranks and medians are computed across the 50 states and DC in this dataset. Every input behind the payback figure is printed in the assumptions block below, and the full 51-row table is at /states.
Reproduce the North Carolina household comparisons
These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 10482.65 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.
The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.
Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.
Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.
Scenario
Initial cash cost
Year 1 energy value
Year 1 net cash incl. receipts
Payback
Flat-price payback
25-year net cash after cost
Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,481.20
$1,481.20
13.0 years
15.7 years
Modeled $28,096.27
Hypothetical household — no incentives
$22,400.00
$947.11
$849.67
20.1 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $7,452.31
Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
$26,880.00
$947.11
$849.67
23.1 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $2,972.31
Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,214.15
$1,116.71
16.3 years
21.2 years
Modeled $16,556.29
DEP Rider NMB: monthly netting with an assumed flat monthly load — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,404.40
$1,306.96
14.3 years
17.9 years
Modeled $23,041.96
DEC Rider NMB: monthly netting with an assumed flat monthly load — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,408.84
$1,325.68
14.2 years
17.7 years
Modeled $23,550.56
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 14.130¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(100/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 14.13/100)] = $1,481.20. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Hypothetical household — no incentives
Low export-value case for a Duke Energy Progress (DEP) Rider NMB customer (the minimum bill and the fixed-charge share of the EIA average are not modeled, so actual value can be lower): every instantaneous export is valued at the 3.94-cent Net Excess Energy Credit in NC Fourth Revised Leaf No. 605 (effective April 1, 2026), as if no export offset a same-month import, and the annual fee is that leaf's Non-Bypassable Charge of 1.16 dollars per kW DC a month on 7 kW. The import price is the 14.13-cent EIA 2024 North Carolina average, not a DEP rate schedule. Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC) customers have a 4.53-cent credit and a 0.99-dollar charge instead (NC Sixth Revised Leaf No. 143). The two monthly-netting rows below apply each utility's rider.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 3.940¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $97.44.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(50/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 3.94/100)] = $947.11. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
Same production, prices, consumption share and fees, but cash cost is 20% higher; not a market-price estimate.
Assumed initial cash cost $26,880.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 3.940¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $97.44.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(50/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 3.94/100)] = $947.11. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives
Assumes a different load profile serves 75% of production on site without added equipment cost. This is a sensitivity, not a promised behavioral saving.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 3.940¢/kWh; self-use 75%; incremental fixed annual cost $97.44.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(75/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 75/100) × 3.94/100)] = $1,214.15. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: DEP Rider NMB: monthly netting with an assumed flat monthly load — no incentives
Duke Energy Progress Rider NMB (NC Fourth Revised Leaf No. 605, effective April 1, 2026) nets supplied and delivered kWh over each monthly billing period and credits only the month's remaining net excess at the Net Excess Energy Credit of 3.94 cents/kWh; it adds a Non-Bypassable Charge of 1.16 dollars per kW DC a month (97.44 dollars a year on 7 kW). Monthly production follows PVWatts v8 at North Carolina's 2020 Census center of population. The load is ASSUMED: annual use equal to year-one production, spread evenly over 12 months, with 50% of production used on site as generated. Under those assumptions net excess occurs only in months producing more than a twelfth of the year's output and totals 7.19% of production; the remaining 92.81% offsets purchases at the 14.13-cent EIA 2024 average price, which is not a DEP rate schedule. In this row the self-use field means that retail-offset share. TOU-period netting and the 28-dollar monthly minimum bill are not modeled. The rider “will be closed to new participants on and after January 1, 2027”, and it names Residential Solar Choice Rider RSC as the alternative for applicants after the year's capacity is met; RSC is not modeled here. DEP territory only.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 3.940¢/kWh; self-use 92.81%; incremental fixed annual cost $97.44.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(92.81/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 92.81/100) × 3.94/100)] = $1,404.40. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: DEC Rider NMB: monthly netting with an assumed flat monthly load — no incentives
Duke Energy Carolinas Rider NMB (NC Sixth Revised Leaf No. 143, effective September 1, 2026) nets supplied and delivered kWh over each monthly billing period and credits only the month's remaining net excess at the Net Excess Energy Credit of 4.53 cents/kWh; it adds a Non-Bypassable Charge of 0.99 dollars per kW DC a month (83.16 dollars a year on 7 kW). Monthly production follows PVWatts v8 at North Carolina's 2020 Census center of population. The load is ASSUMED: annual use equal to year-one production, spread evenly over 12 months, with 50% of production used on site as generated. Under those assumptions net excess occurs only in months producing more than a twelfth of the year's output and totals 7.19% of production; the remaining 92.81% offsets purchases at the 14.13-cent EIA 2024 average price, which is not a DEC rate schedule. In this row the self-use field means that retail-offset share. TOU-period netting and the 22-dollar monthly minimum bill are not modeled. The rider “will be closed to new participants on and after January 1, 2027”, and it names Residential Solar Choice Rider RSC as the alternative for applicants after the year's capacity is met; RSC is not modeled here. DEC territory only.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.130¢/kWh; export 4.530¢/kWh; self-use 92.81%; incremental fixed annual cost $83.16.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10482.65 × [(92.81/100 × 14.13/100) + ((1 − 92.81/100) × 4.53/100)] = $1,408.84. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Formula and modeling limitations · Use the editable calculator below to test your own cash price and energy split. It cannot confirm utility enrollment or tax eligibility.
Assumptions behind the North Carolina retail-value benchmark
A common full-retail comparison, not an address-specific forecast. Size alone does not change payback when cash cost and production both scale proportionally. Use the worksheet to vary cash price, production, self-consumption, export value and recurring costs.
System modeled
7 kW DC
Assumed installed cost
$22,400 (assumed $3.20/W DC)
Annual production, year 1
10,483 kWh
Production basis
NSRDB daily sunlight on a 20° south-facing panel at North Carolina's 2020 Census population center (5.26 kWh/m²/day, via PVWatts v8). Annual production = system kW × this input × 365 × assumed performance ratio. PVWatts' own modelled AC output for the same request is 1,411.4 kWh per kW, or 9,880 kWh for 7 kW, so this shortcut runs 6.1% above it; on the PVWatts figure the benchmark payback would be 13.7 years.
Performance ratio (system losses)
0.78
EIA state-average retail rate
14.13¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average
Panel degradation
0.5%/yr
Assumed electricity price escalation
3.0%/yr, not a forecast
Model horizon
25 years
Federal tax credit applied
None included in this benchmark
State or utility incentives applied
None deducted in this benchmark. Where a household scenario above applies a published tariff rate or a conditional receipt, its row says so; this benchmark applies none of them
Assumed value of all production
Full retail rate, including exports; not a utility tariff lookup
Recurring operating costs applied
None in this benchmark; editable in worksheet
How the payback figure reconciles
Modelled $22,400 ÷ modelled $1,481 of year-one savings = 15.1 years — the straight division, if electricity prices never move and the panels never age.
With 0.5%/yr degradation and prices held flat: 15.7 years.
With the same degradation and electricity prices rising 3.0%/yr: 13.0 years — the retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast.
Production stress test, same assumed prices: 20% less production (shading, a poorer roof angle) gives 15.7 years; 20% more production gives 11.1 years. This is a what-if range, not a confidence interval.
These price-growth rates are assumptions, not forecasts of your utility's tariff. None of these cases models financing, taxes, battery dispatch or actual utility settlement. No crossing within 25 years does not establish a crossing later. Full wording on the methodology.
Solar cash-flow worksheet
Compare assumed cash flows, not an address-specific forecast. No tariff, roof or incentive eligibility is looked up. Your worksheet entries are calculated in this browser; the worksheet does not send them anywhere or save them between visits. The site also loads Google advertising code; the privacy page explains what that code may collect and your choices.
Starting retail rate: 14.13¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average (North Carolina), from EIA Table 2.10. It is not your current tariff. All cost, export, usage, escalation and incentive entries are assumptions.
With no incentives or recurring costs, fixed cost/W and proportional generation mean that increasing size scales cost and savings equally: payback years cancel out. Unedited price and production follow that rule here. Once you edit either, it stays fixed when size changes; update it deliberately. Different cash prices, shading/production and export shares can change payback.
Optional assumed cash incentives — zero by default
No federal, state or utility incentive is inferred. Check eligibility and actual receipt timing. Recurring and delayed incentives arrive at year end; do not enter the same benefit in multiple fields. Operating cash is approximated uniformly within each year.
Your entered scenario — modelled, not a quote
Modelled installed cash price
$22,400
Modelled initial outlay after upfront rebate
$22,400
Modelled year-one net cash, including receipts/costs
$1,481
Modelled first cash-flow break-even
13.0 years
Modelled 25-year net cash after initial outlay
$28,096
Modelled production in year one
10,483 kWh
Modelled year-one energy value before costs/incentives: $1,481.
No break-even inside 25 years means the model never crosses within its horizon; it does not predict a later crossing. This is undiscounted cash flow, not investment return. A first crossing can reverse if later operating costs exceed cash benefits. Financing, taxes, changing export rules, time-of-use settlement, credit expiry and battery dispatch are not simulated.
Assumed price-escalation sensitivity
Same entered inputs, degradation and nominal fixed costs; only import/export price escalation changes. These are scenarios, not forecasts.
0%/year: 15.7 years
3%/year: 13.0 years
6%/year: 11.3 years
Separate common retail-value benchmark
This comparison uses 7 kW, assumed $3.20/W, production from the state's one-location NSRDB sunlight input and 14.13¢/kWh (Calendar year 2024 annual average) for every kWh. It ignores your entered cash price, production, tariff, costs and incentives; assumes 0.5% degradation and 3% escalation. It is not an address forecast.
Benchmark assumed cash price
$22,400
Benchmark modelled year-one value
$1,481
Benchmark modelled break-even
13.0 years
Reproduce the 25-year modelled cash flows for your entered scenario
Annual cash = degraded production × weighted import/export price × price-escalation factor − annual fixed cost + eligible year-end receipts. Cumulative cash starts at negative initial outlay. Incentives after year 25 are excluded.
Use your utility tariff and a site-specific production assessment to refine inputs. Methodology and limitations.
Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See full disclaimer.
Compare every state
North Carolina is one of 17 jurisdictions with a written analysis on this site: 16 states and the District of Columbia. The rate, sunlight, modeled payback and recorded incentives for all 50 states and DC — including those without a page — are in one sortable table.