State analysis · source documents checked 2026-09-24
Solar payback in Utah (UT) — 2026
Rocky Mountain Power's Schedule 137 credits Utah solar exports at 4.855 cents/kWh in June–September and 4.033 cents in October–May. With half of production used at home and an assumed 12-cent import price, a modeled RMP household takes about 20 years to pay back (19.6 to 20.3 years across the escalating export-price cases below, or 21.6 years if the winter export credit is held flat) and does not break even inside 25 years if prices stay flat. New residential PV gets no Utah state tax credit, and customers of other Utah utilities need their own utility's export tariff.
What decides the answer in Utah
Schedule 137 (Net Billing Service) is a Rocky Mountain Power tariff; its availability clause reads “At any point on the Company's interconnected system”. It covers a customer-owned or leased renewable system of up to 25 kW for a residential facility, on or next to the customer's premises, with a signed Interconnection Agreement for Net Billing Service. If a municipal utility or an electric cooperative serves your home, RMP's export prices do not apply: get that utility's own net-billing tariff and enter its export price in the calculator's assumed export credit field. For RMP customers, sheet 137.3 credits exported energy at 4.855 cents/kWh in June–September billing months and 4.033 cents in October–May, effective March 1, 2026. The Utah PSC approved those rates on February 23, 2026 in Dockets 26-035-T03 and 25-035-64, down from 5.704 and 4.199 cents. [1] [3]
Solar used at home saves the price of power you would otherwise buy, and that price comes from your regular residential schedule: Schedule 137 says energy charges are “computed from the total purchased Energy for the billing period”. On RMP's standard residential Schedule 1 (sheet 1.2, effective August 10, 2026, Docket 26-035-T08), the energy charge in June–September is 9.8332 cents/kWh for the first 400 kWh and 12.5263 cents for all additional kWh; in October–May it is 8.7020 and 11.0852 cents. Because the blocks are counted on total purchases, a household that buys more than 400 kWh a month saves the upper-block price on each kWh it no longer buys, until its purchases in that month fall below 400 kWh. The 12-cent import price in the household cases is an assumed round figure between those two upper-block charges. It leaves out the Schedule 80 surcharge adjustment that Schedule 1 applies to every bill, whose amount is not verified here, and it does not model Schedule 1's time-of-use option or Schedules 2, 2E and 3, which Schedule 137 also treats as residential. With every other household input unchanged, pricing all self-used kWh at 12.5263 cents gives a modeled payback of 19.8 years, and at 11.0852 cents 21.3 years; neither breaks even inside 25 years at flat prices. [4] [3]
Utah's Office of Energy Development states that “Residential solar PV systems installed in 2024 and beyond are not eligible for the state tax credit”, so every Utah case uses no state credit. The same page says that under HB 264 (2025) the rest of the Renewable Energy Systems Tax Credit expires for systems placed in service after January 1, 2028; that remainder covers non-solar residential systems and commercial systems. The main simplification in the retail benchmark is on the export side: it treats every kWh the array produces as worth the 12.22-cent state-average retail price, whether used at home or exported, which is about two and a half to three times RMP's current export credit. [2]
If the home already has solar, its older schedule matters more than today's export rates. Schedule 135 (Net Metering Service) closed to new applications on November 15, 2017 and terminates on December 31, 2035; it credits a residential customer's excess energy as kilowatt-hours that offset the next bill “at the full retail rate of the customer's rate schedule”, and unused credits expire at the March meter reading each year. Schedule 136 (Transition Program for Customer Generators) closed to new applications on October 31, 2020 and terminates on December 31, 2032; it nets usage and exports in 15-minute intervals and credits residential exports at 9.2000 cents/kWh. That rate is not guaranteed for every Schedule 136 home: the program had a cumulative cap of 170 MW for residential and small non-residential customers, and a customer who interconnected after that cap was reached “may receive Exported Customer-Generated Energy Credits only until a new tariff becomes effective for exported customer-generated energy”. Whether a given home falls under that condition is not verified here. Both schedules cite the PSC order of September 29, 2017 in Docket No. 14-035-114. Both transfer to a later customer at the same premises while a valid interconnection agreement is in effect, but service can be terminated if the approved equipment is removed from service (other than for a short-term repair or replacement), the system is enlarged after interconnection or the customer switches programs, which requires a new application under the tariff in effect at that time. Ask the seller or RMP which interconnection agreement the home holds; the household cases on this page model new Schedule 137 service only. [5] [6]
The household cases hold the assumed import price and 50% self-use fixed and change only the export price: all exports at the winter rate (20.3 years), all at the summer rate (19.6 years), and an assumed 60/40 summer/winter split of exported kWh (19.9 years). That split is a hypothetical weighting, not a measured load profile. Production moves the answer more than the export season does. With 20% less production than modeled, the winter-rate household takes 24.2 years and does not break even inside 25 years at flat prices; with 20% more, it takes 17.6 years (22.9 at flat prices). The same 20% change in either direction moves the retail benchmark from 14.4 years to 17.4 and 12.3 years. [1]
How Utah pays for an exported kilowatt-hour
Export value differs from the full retail bill. Sheet 137.3 turns exported kWh into a dollar credit at the seasonal rate and applies it against the power and energy charges on that month's bill. Unused credit carries to the next monthly bill within an annual period that ends at the regularly scheduled March meter reading (a new customer's first period starts when Schedule 137 service begins), and any credit left at that reading expires. You still pay your residential schedule's minimum monthly amount in a month when you export more than you use. The closed Schedule 136 nets in 15-minute intervals; the Schedule 137 sheets set no netting interval and define exports as generation “in excess of the customer's on-site consumption that is exported to the grid”. How much of your output counts as export therefore depends on when you use power, which the 50% self-use figure here assumes rather than measures.
Document: Residential Eligible Technologies; HB 264 expiry note. Effective/source period: Residential PV installed in 2024 and beyond excluded; remaining credit expires for systems placed in service after January 1, 2028.
Applies to: Residential solar PV installations; other technologies have different rules. Relevant passage: “Residential solar PV systems installed in 2024 and beyond are not eligible for the state tax credit.”.
Document: P.S.C.U. No. 52, Electric Service Schedule No. 137, sheets 137.1–137.5. Effective/source period: Sheet 137.3 effective March 1, 2026 (Docket No. 26-035-T03); other sheets effective April 25, 2025.
Applies to: Rocky Mountain Power customers with a renewable facility of up to 25 kW residential; residential means service under Schedules 1, 2, 2E or 3. Relevant passage: “Excess credits will carry-over to the next monthly bill during the Annualized Billing Period.”.
Document: P.S.C.U. No. 52, Electric Service Schedule No. 1, Third Revision of Sheet No. 1.2. Effective/source period: August 10, 2026, Docket No. 26-035-T08.
Applies to: Rocky Mountain Power residential customers on Schedule 1. Relevant passage: “12.5263¢ per kWh all additional kWh”.
Document: P.S.C.U. No. 52, Electric Service Schedule No. 135, Original Sheet No. 135.1 (term), First Revision of Sheet No. 135.3 (Special Condition 2, credits), Third Revision of Sheet No. 135.4 (Special Condition 3, March expiry), First Revision of Sheet No. 135.6 (Special Conditions 11–12, transfer and termination). Effective/source period: Closed to applications for new service as of November 15, 2017; terminates December 31, 2035. Sheet 135.1 effective April 25, 2025; sheets 135.3 and 135.6 effective December 1, 2025 (Docket No. 25-035-T12); sheet 135.4 effective July 1, 2026 (Docket No. 26-035-T07).
Applies to: Rocky Mountain Power customers with an Interconnection Agreement for Net Metering Service. Relevant passage: “Service under this Schedule will terminate on December 31, 2035.”.
Document: P.S.C.U. No. 52, Electric Service Schedule No. 136, sheet 136.1 (term, 170 MW cap), sheet 136.3 (export rates), sheet 136.4 (Special Condition 3, post-cap credits), sheet 136.5 (Special Conditions 15–16, transfer and termination). Effective/source period: Closed to applications for new service as of October 31, 2020; terminates December 31, 2032. Sheets 136.1–136.6 effective April 25, 2025 (Docket No. 24-035-04).
Applies to: Rocky Mountain Power customers with an Interconnection Agreement for Transition Program Service. Relevant passage: “Service under this Schedule will terminate on December 31, 2032.”.
“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.
Common retail-value benchmark — not a household forecast
No incentives; every modeled kWh is valued at the historical state-average retail price. The household scenarios below separate assumed import/export prices, consumption share, cash cost and receipt timing.
How Utah compares with the other 50 records in this dataset
Measure
Utah
Dataset median
Rank of 51
Avg residential rate
12.22¢/kWh
14.91¢/kWh
46th highest
NSRDB daily sunlight (one location per state)
5.4 kWh/m²/day
4.9 kWh/m²/day
11th highest
Retail benchmark payback
14.4 years
13.0 years
38th fastest on this benchmark
Household scenarios below (range)
19.6 years to 23.4 years
—
Not ranked across states
The rank compares every state on the same full-retail basis; it is a benchmark, not a forecast for a new Utah customer. The household scenarios below, each with its own stated import price, export credit, cost and incentive timing, give 19.6 years to 23.4 years; that range leaves out the illustrative 20% lower and higher production rows, which change only production.
Rate: Calendar year 2024 annual average, from the EIA. Sunlight is NSRDB data via NLR PVWatts v8 at each state's 2020 Census center of population, one location per state (request settings and the values PVWatts returned are in state-insolation-pvwatts.json). Ranks and medians are computed across the 50 states and DC in this dataset. Every input behind the payback figure is printed in the assumptions block below, and the full 51-row table is at /states.
Reproduce the Utah household comparisons
These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 10721.80 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.
The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.
Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.
Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.
Scenario
Initial cash cost
Year 1 energy value
Year 1 net cash incl. receipts
Payback
Flat-price payback
25-year net cash after cost
Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,310.20
$1,310.20
14.4 years
17.8 years
Modeled $22,266.80
Hypothetical household — no incentives
$22,400.00
$859.51
$859.51
20.3 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $6,902.08
Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
$26,880.00
$859.51
$859.51
23.4 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $2,422.08
Summer export price (4.855 cents) applied to all exports
$22,400.00
$903.58
$903.58
19.6 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $8,404.37
Assumed 60% summer / 40% winter export mix
$22,400.00
$885.95
$885.95
19.9 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $7,803.46
Winter export price (4.033 cents) held flat for 25 years — no incentives
$22,400.00
$643.31
$859.51
21.6 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $4,624.24
Illustrative 20% lower production — no incentives
$22,400.00
$687.61
$687.61
24.2 years
no break-even inside 25 years
Modeled $1,041.66
Illustrative 20% higher production — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,031.42
$1,031.42
17.6 years
22.9 years
Modeled $12,762.49
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.220¢/kWh; export 12.220¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(100/100 × 12.22/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 12.22/100)] = $1,310.20. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Hypothetical household — no incentives
Assumed 12-cent import price, a round figure between the upper-block energy charges on Rocky Mountain Power Schedule 1 (Third Revision of Sheet No. 1.2, effective August 10, 2026, Docket No. 26-035-T08): 12.5263 cents per kWh above 400 kWh a month in June–September and 11.0852 cents in October–May. The first-400-kWh blocks, the Schedule 80 surcharge adjustment and the time-of-use option are not included. Export uses the published March 2026 winter price (Schedule 137) for ALL annual exports, not a seasonal forecast. No state tax credit is included: Utah's Office of Energy Development says residential solar PV installed in 2024 and beyond is not eligible.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.033¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.033/100)] = $859.51. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
Same production, prices, consumption share and fees, but cash cost is 20% higher; not a market-price estimate.
Assumed initial cash cost $26,880.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.033¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.033/100)] = $859.51. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Summer export price (4.855 cents) applied to all exports
Applies published 4.855 cents/kWh summer export price to ALL annual exports, keeping the same assumed 12-cent import price and no state credit. Compare with the 4.033-cent winter case; neither is a seasonally weighted prediction.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.855¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.855/100)] = $903.58. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Assumes 60% of annual exported kWh occur June–September and 40% October–May. These energy weights are hypothetical, not a measured seasonal profile or equal-month weighting. Weighted export cents = 0.60 × 4.855 + 0.40 × 4.033; the same assumed 12-cent import price, 50% annual self-use and no state credit are retained.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.526¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.5262/100)] = $885.95. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Winter export price (4.033 cents) held flat for 25 years — no incentives
The Public Service Commission's February 23, 2026 letter approving Rocky Mountain Power's Schedule 137 revisions (Docket Nos. 26-035-T03 and 25-035-64) says they “decrease the ECR that customers will receive for exported energy from 5.704 cents per kWh to 4.855 cents per kWh for June through September inclusive, and from 4.199 cents per kWh to 4.033 cents per kWh for October through May inclusive”, and that RMP filed them under the PSC's export credit rate orders in Docket No. 17-035-61. The export credit is recalculated under those orders and has just fallen, so this row does not let it rise: the 4.033-cent winter price is held flat for all 25 years while the assumed 12-cent import price still rises in the main column. The model escalates its single export-price field together with the import price, so these export credits are entered as year-end receipts and the export field is set to 0: the Year 1 energy value column covers self-used energy only, and the year-one export credit is 216.21 dollars on 50% of production. RMP credits exports on the monthly bill, but this model books each year's credits at year end, so payback in this row can be up to one year later than monthly crediting would give and can land on a whole year.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 0.000¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10721.80 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 0/100)] = $643.31. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: No incentive. The listed receipts are export bill credits at 4.033 cents on 50% of modeled production, held flat; not a program payment. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $5,092.92. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
Assumed receipt at end of year 1: $216.21
Assumed receipt at end of year 2: $215.12
Assumed receipt at end of year 3: $214.05
Assumed receipt at end of year 4: $212.98
Assumed receipt at end of year 5: $211.91
Assumed receipt at end of year 6: $210.85
Assumed receipt at end of year 7: $209.80
Assumed receipt at end of year 8: $208.75
Assumed receipt at end of year 9: $207.71
Assumed receipt at end of year 10: $206.67
Assumed receipt at end of year 11: $205.63
Assumed receipt at end of year 12: $204.61
Assumed receipt at end of year 13: $203.58
Assumed receipt at end of year 14: $202.57
Assumed receipt at end of year 15: $201.55
Assumed receipt at end of year 16: $200.55
Assumed receipt at end of year 17: $199.54
Assumed receipt at end of year 18: $198.54
Assumed receipt at end of year 19: $197.55
Assumed receipt at end of year 20: $196.56
Assumed receipt at end of year 21: $195.58
Assumed receipt at end of year 22: $194.60
Assumed receipt at end of year 23: $193.63
Assumed receipt at end of year 24: $192.66
Assumed receipt at end of year 25: $191.70
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 20% lower production — no incentives
Same prices, self-use share and cost as the hypothetical household, with first-year production 8577.44 kWh instead of 10721.80 kWh. Roof direction, shading and location within the state can move production by this much. At the same production the retail-value benchmark gives 17.4 years (22.5 years at flat prices).
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.033¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 8577.44 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.033/100)] = $687.61. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 20% higher production — no incentives
Same prices, self-use share and cost as the hypothetical household, with first-year production 12866.16 kWh instead of 10721.80 kWh. Roof direction, shading and location within the state can move production by this much. At the same production the retail-value benchmark gives 12.3 years (14.7 years at flat prices).
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 12.000¢/kWh; export 4.033¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12866.16 × [(50/100 × 12/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 4.033/100)] = $1,031.42. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Formula and modeling limitations · Use the editable calculator below to test your own cash price and energy split. It cannot confirm utility enrollment or tax eligibility.
Assumptions behind the Utah retail-value benchmark
A common full-retail comparison, not an address-specific forecast. Size alone does not change payback when cash cost and production both scale proportionally. Use the worksheet to vary cash price, production, self-consumption, export value and recurring costs.
System modeled
7 kW DC
Assumed installed cost
$22,400 (assumed $3.20/W DC)
Annual production, year 1
10,722 kWh
Production basis
NSRDB daily sunlight on a 20° south-facing panel at Utah's 2020 Census population center (5.38 kWh/m²/day, via PVWatts v8). Annual production = system kW × this input × 365 × assumed performance ratio. PVWatts' own modelled AC output for the same request is 1,506.9 kWh per kW, or 10,548 kWh for 7 kW, so this shortcut runs 1.6% above it; on the PVWatts figure the benchmark payback would be 14.6 years.
Performance ratio (system losses)
0.78
EIA state-average retail rate
12.22¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average
Panel degradation
0.5%/yr
Assumed electricity price escalation
3.0%/yr, not a forecast
Model horizon
25 years
Federal tax credit applied
None included in this benchmark
State or utility incentives applied
None deducted in this benchmark. Where a household scenario above applies a published tariff rate or a conditional receipt, its row says so; this benchmark applies none of them
Assumed value of all production
Full retail rate, including exports; not a utility tariff lookup
Recurring operating costs applied
None in this benchmark; editable in worksheet
How the payback figure reconciles
Modelled $22,400 ÷ modelled $1,310 of year-one savings = 17.1 years — the straight division, if electricity prices never move and the panels never age.
With 0.5%/yr degradation and prices held flat: 17.8 years.
With the same degradation and electricity prices rising 3.0%/yr: 14.4 years — the retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast.
Production stress test, same assumed prices: 20% less production (shading, a poorer roof angle) gives 17.4 years; 20% more production gives 12.3 years. This is a what-if range, not a confidence interval.
These price-growth rates are assumptions, not forecasts of your utility's tariff. None of these cases models financing, taxes, battery dispatch or actual utility settlement. No crossing within 25 years does not establish a crossing later. Full wording on the methodology.
Solar cash-flow worksheet
Compare assumed cash flows, not an address-specific forecast. No tariff, roof or incentive eligibility is looked up. Your worksheet entries are calculated in this browser; the worksheet does not send them anywhere or save them between visits. The site also loads Google advertising code; the privacy page explains what that code may collect and your choices.
Starting retail rate: 12.22¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average (Utah), from EIA Table 2.10. It is not your current tariff. All cost, export, usage, escalation and incentive entries are assumptions.
Starting export credit: 4.033¢/kWh, from the Utah PSC approval letter, Docket 26-035-T03. Rocky Mountain Power Schedule 137 credits exports at 4.033¢/kWh in October–May and 4.855¢ in June–September, effective March 1, 2026. The lower rate is applied to every exported kWh here; it is not seasonally weighted. Schedule 137 is a Rocky Mountain Power tariff for customers interconnected with its system; if another utility, such as a municipal utility or cooperative, serves the home, ask that utility for its own export terms. The 50% used on site is an assumption. Import starts at the EIA state average shown above; the household cases on this site's Utah page use an assumed round 12¢ import price instead, so the same winter-export case shows a slightly longer break-even there than the result below.
With no incentives or recurring costs, fixed cost/W and proportional generation mean that increasing size scales cost and savings equally: payback years cancel out. Unedited price and production follow that rule here. Once you edit either, it stays fixed when size changes; update it deliberately. Different cash prices, shading/production and export shares can change payback.
Optional assumed cash incentives — zero by default
No federal, state or utility incentive is inferred. Check eligibility and actual receipt timing. Recurring and delayed incentives arrive at year end; do not enter the same benefit in multiple fields. Operating cash is approximated uniformly within each year.
Your entered scenario — modelled, not a quote
Modelled installed cash price
$22,400
Modelled initial outlay after upfront rebate
$22,400
Modelled year-one net cash, including receipts/costs
$871
Modelled first cash-flow break-even
20.1 years
Modelled 25-year net cash after initial outlay
$7,304
Modelled production in year one
10,722 kWh
Modelled year-one energy value before costs/incentives: $871. The same production valued entirely at your entered import price would be a modelled $1,310.
No break-even inside 25 years means the model never crosses within its horizon; it does not predict a later crossing. This is undiscounted cash flow, not investment return. A first crossing can reverse if later operating costs exceed cash benefits. Financing, taxes, changing export rules, time-of-use settlement, credit expiry and battery dispatch are not simulated.
Assumed price-escalation sensitivity
Same entered inputs, degradation and nominal fixed costs; only import/export price escalation changes. These are scenarios, not forecasts.
0%/year: no break-even inside 25 years
3%/year: 20.1 years
6%/year: 16.5 years
Separate common retail-value benchmark
This comparison uses 7 kW, assumed $3.20/W, production from the state's one-location NSRDB sunlight input and 12.22¢/kWh (Calendar year 2024 annual average) for every kWh. It ignores your entered cash price, production, tariff, costs and incentives; assumes 0.5% degradation and 3% escalation. It is not an address forecast.
Benchmark assumed cash price
$22,400
Benchmark modelled year-one value
$1,310
Benchmark modelled break-even
14.4 years
Reproduce the 25-year modelled cash flows for your entered scenario
Annual cash = degraded production × weighted import/export price × price-escalation factor − annual fixed cost + eligible year-end receipts. Cumulative cash starts at negative initial outlay. Incentives after year 25 are excluded.
Use your utility tariff and a site-specific production assessment to refine inputs. Methodology and limitations.
Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See full disclaimer.
Compare every state
Utah is one of 17 jurisdictions with a written analysis on this site: 16 states and the District of Columbia. The rate, sunlight, modeled payback and recorded incentives for all 50 states and DC — including those without a page — are in one sortable table.