What decides the answer in Arizona
APS Rate Rider RCP, A.C.C. 6248 revision 11, implements Decision 82122 effective September 1, 2026. Its 2026 tranche lists 5.554 cents/kWh for eligible new residential on-site solar exports, compared with 6.171 cents for the preceding tranche. APS meters exported energy instantaneously. These are export prices, not the price of imported electricity or a forecast for every Arizona utility. [1]
Page 1 of the rider ties the initial tranche to the interconnection application: the installation must be completed and approved by the authority having jurisdiction within 180 days of the application, or 270 days if a third party or APS delays the interconnection through no fault of the customer or installer. An application date alone is not a guarantee. The initial rate then lasts ten years from interconnection; after that the purchase rate in effect at the time applies and may change from year to year. The rider also says a new tranche's rate may not be reduced by more than 10% a year. The Plan of Administration (effective September 1, 2024, Decision No. 79482) sets how credits settle: excess credit rolls to the next bill, and after the December bill a check is issued only if the remaining export credit is more than 25 dollars. All retail-plan charges continue, so a demand charge or a time-of-use import rate cannot be reconstructed from the RCP number alone. [1] [2]
TEP publishes a separate export rider. TEP Rider-14 (RCP-PRS), effective September 1, 2023 under Decision No. 79065, also locks a customer's initial rate for ten years from interconnection, but its tranches start October 1 and it requires service on a TEP residential or small general service time-of-use rate. TEP's Statement of Charges lists 5.13 cents/kWh for the tranche effective October 1, 2025 (Decision No. 81488) and a 4.62-cent tranche marked pending, with no decision number yet. SRP's customer-generation price plan, export price and demand terms are not covered here; check them with SRP before relying on an SRP-territory quote. [3] [4]
For a quote review, retain the application acknowledgement, approval date, retail schedule and system capacity. Ask whether a later expansion changes the tranche: both riders treat an increase of 10% or 1 kW (1 kW-ac in APS's rider), whichever is greater, as material. A material increase ends the original rate: bill credits then follow the RCP rate current at the time, locked for ten years minus the years already served under the earlier rate. A locked RCP rate does not rise with retail prices during those ten years. The hypothetical household row on this page is not an APS or TEP tariff: its assumed 6-cent export price rises every year with the import price, so for an RCP customer it overstates export value during the lock. The APS and TEP rows hold the published tranche rate flat for the ten-year lock and are the ones to read for an RCP customer. [1] [3]
Arizona also has a state income tax credit, which the payback figures on this page leave out. Under A.R.S. 43-1083, a resident who is not another taxpayer's dependent can claim 25% of the cost of a solar energy device installed at their Arizona residence during the tax year, up to 1,000 dollars in a tax year and 1,000 dollars in total for the same residence across all years. A credit larger than the year's Arizona income tax can be carried forward for up to five years. Section 42-5001 counts a system designed to produce electrical power as a solar energy device. The statute requires the seller to give the buyer an accounting of the cost; keep it with your tax records. How much of the credit a household can use depends on its own Arizona tax, which this page does not model. [5] [6]
How Arizona pays for an exported kilowatt-hour
Export value differs from the full retail bill. The common retail-value benchmark credits all production at the historical state-average rate. It is not APS RCP billing. Separating self-used and exported energy makes the direction of that overvaluation visible, but annual averages still omit interval demand and time-of-use charges.
No federal residential credit is applied by default in any calculator or state benchmark on this site (Section 25D expired at the end of 2025), and the mechanics of export regimes are covered in the net metering guide.
Sources for the Arizona section above
- APS RCP tariff — Tranche prices, application/completion conditions, ten-year term and modification rules.
Document: A.C.C. 6248, revision 11; Decision 82122; pp. 1–3. Effective/source period: September 1, 2026 (original rider August 19, 2017).
Applies to: APS partial-requirements residential customers with qualifying on-site solar; not legacy riders. Relevant passage: “Each Customer’s initial RCP rate will be applicable for 10 years”.
- APS RCP Plan of Administration — Monthly credit carryover and December cash-out rule; restates the tranche and completion rules. Not a substitute for the current tariff.
Document: Resource Comparison Proxy Plan of Administration, §2 Customer Billing and §3 Purchase Rate, pp. 1–2. Effective/source period: September 1, 2024, Decision No. 79482.
Applies to: APS customers on a residential rate schedule with qualifying on-site solar. Relevant passage: “After the Customer’s December bill, if the remaining Export Energy credits exceed $25, a check will automatically be issued; otherwise, the Export Energy bill credits will carry forward to the following year”.
- TEP Rider-14 (RCP-PRS) — October 1 tranche timing, ten-year lock, time-of-use rate requirement and capacity-increase rule.
Document: Rider-14, Resource Comparison Proxy Export Rate for Certain Partial Requirements Service, sheets 714-0 to 714-2. Effective/source period: September 1, 2023, Decision No. 79065.
Applies to: TEP residential or small general service customers with on-site solar or wind generation; not with grandfathered net-metering Rider-4. Relevant passage: “Customers taking service on this rate rider must take electric service on one of the Company’s current residential or small general service time-of-use rate tariffs”.
- TEP Statement of Charges — Current published TEP RCP export price for the October 2025 tranche (table cell).
Document: Statement of Charges, sheet 801-2, Rider R-14 rows. Effective/source period: Tranche effective October 1, 2025 (Decision No. 81488); the following tranche is listed as Pending.
Applies to: New TEP RCP customers, by application tranche. Relevant passage: “$0.0513 per kWh”.
- Arizona Revised Statutes 43-1083 — 25% credit, 1,000-dollar per-residence limit, five-year carryforward and the seller's cost accounting.
Document: Section 43-1083, Credit for solar energy devices, subsections A to C. Effective/source period: Current statute text as published by the Arizona Legislature; retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: Arizona residents who are not dependents of another taxpayer, installing a solar energy device at their Arizona residence. Relevant passage: “The credit is equal to twenty-five percent of the cost of the device.”.
- Arizona Revised Statutes 42-5001 — A photovoltaic system counts as a solar energy device.
Document: Section 42-5001, paragraph 20, definition of solar energy device. Effective/source period: Current statute text as published by the Arizona Legislature; retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: Definition used by section 43-1083. Relevant passage: “"Solar energy device" means a system or series of mechanisms that are designed primarily to provide heating, to provide cooling, to produce electrical power”.
“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.
Reproduce the Arizona household comparisons
These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 12973.78 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.
The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.
Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.
Download exact scenario inputs and all 25 yearly results (JSON)Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.| Scenario | Initial cash cost | Year 1 energy value | Year 1 net cash incl. receipts | Payback | Flat-price payback | 25-year net cash after cost |
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| Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $1,934.39 | $1,934.39 | 10.3 years | 11.9 years | Modeled $43,546.23 |
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| Hypothetical household — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $1,297.38 | $1,297.38 | 14.5 years | 18.0 years | Modeled $21,829.53 |
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| Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives | $26,880.00 | $1,297.38 | $1,297.38 | 16.9 years | 21.8 years | Modeled $17,349.53 |
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| Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $1,751.46 | $1,751.46 | 11.2 years | 13.2 years | Modeled $37,309.87 |
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| APS: published 2026 export tranche locked for 10 years — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $830.32 | $1,262.66 | 16.0 years | 18.8 years | Modeled $16,091.04 |
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| TEP: October 2025 export tranche locked for 10 years — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $830.32 | $1,229.65 | 16.1 years | 19.1 years | Modeled $15,313.57 |
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| Illustrative 20% lower production — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $1,037.90 | $1,037.90 | 17.5 years | 22.8 years | Modeled $12,983.63 |
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| Illustrative 20% higher production — no incentives | $22,400.00 | $1,556.85 | $1,556.85 | 12.4 years | 14.9 years | Modeled $30,675.44 |
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Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.910¢/kWh; export 14.910¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(100/100 × 14.91/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 14.91/100)] = $1,934.39. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Hypothetical household — no incentives
Non-utility illustration: assumed flat prices, with a 6-cent export price that rises with import prices. It is not an APS, TEP or SRP tariff; the APS and TEP rows below use their published locked export rates. Demand charges omitted.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 6/100)] = $1,297.38. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
Same production, prices, consumption share and fees, but cash cost is 20% higher; not a market-price estimate.
Assumed initial cash cost $26,880.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 6/100)] = $1,297.38. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives
Assumes a different load profile serves 75% of production on site without added equipment cost. This is a sensitivity, not a promised behavioral saving.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 75%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(75/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 75/100) × 6/100)] = $1,751.46. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: APS: published 2026 export tranche locked for 10 years — no incentives
APS Rate Rider RCP (A.C.C. No. 6248, Revision No. 11, effective September 1, 2026 in Decision No. 82122) lists Tranche 2026, September 1, 2026 through August 31, 2027, at 5.554 cents/kWh, and says “Each Customer’s initial RCP rate will be applicable for 10 years from the time of their interconnection.” The tranche is set by the interconnection application date only if the customer completes the installation and obtains approval from the Authority Having Jurisdiction within 180 days of the application, or 270 days where a third party or APS causes the delay. After ten years the rider says the credit follows the purchase rate then in effect and “may change from year to year.” APS territory only. In this row the 5.554 cents export credit does not rise during the 10-year lock, and after the lock it is ASSUMED to stay at that value, because the later rate is not published. The model escalates its single export-price field together with the import price, so these export credits are entered as year-end receipts and the export field is set to 0: the Year 1 energy value column covers self-used energy only, and the year-one export credit is 432.34 dollars on 60% of production. Import 16 cents and 40% self-use are the same assumptions as the hypothetical household; only the import price escalates in the main column. The utility credits exports on the monthly bill, but this model books each year's credits at year end, so payback in this row can be up to one year later than monthly crediting would give and can land on a whole year.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 0.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 0/100)] = $830.32. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: No incentive. The listed receipts are export bill credits at the locked 5.554 cents rate on 60% of modeled production, not a program payment; no eligibility is verified. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $10,184.14. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
- Assumed receipt at end of year 1: $432.34
- Assumed receipt at end of year 2: $430.18
- Assumed receipt at end of year 3: $428.03
- Assumed receipt at end of year 4: $425.89
- Assumed receipt at end of year 5: $423.76
- Assumed receipt at end of year 6: $421.64
- Assumed receipt at end of year 7: $419.53
- Assumed receipt at end of year 8: $417.43
- Assumed receipt at end of year 9: $415.34
- Assumed receipt at end of year 10: $413.27
- Assumed receipt at end of year 11: $411.20
- Assumed receipt at end of year 12: $409.15
- Assumed receipt at end of year 13: $407.10
- Assumed receipt at end of year 14: $405.06
- Assumed receipt at end of year 15: $403.04
- Assumed receipt at end of year 16: $401.02
- Assumed receipt at end of year 17: $399.02
- Assumed receipt at end of year 18: $397.02
- Assumed receipt at end of year 19: $395.04
- Assumed receipt at end of year 20: $393.06
- Assumed receipt at end of year 21: $391.10
- Assumed receipt at end of year 22: $389.14
- Assumed receipt at end of year 23: $387.20
- Assumed receipt at end of year 24: $385.26
- Assumed receipt at end of year 25: $383.33
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: TEP: October 2025 export tranche locked for 10 years — no incentives
TEP's Statement of Charges (sheet 801-2) lists Rider R-14 (RCP) at 5.13 cents/kWh for the tranche effective October 1, 2025 (Decision No. 81488); the next tranche, 4.62 cents, is listed as Pending, so an application after it takes effect would lock a lower rate. TEP Rider-14 says “Each Customer’s initial RCP rate will be applicable for 10 years from the time of their interconnection” and requires service on a TEP residential or small general service time-of-use rate, whose prices are not modeled. TEP territory only. In this row the 5.130 cents export credit does not rise during the 10-year lock, and after the lock it is ASSUMED to stay at that value, because the later rate is not published. The model escalates its single export-price field together with the import price, so these export credits are entered as year-end receipts and the export field is set to 0: the Year 1 energy value column covers self-used energy only, and the year-one export credit is 399.33 dollars on 60% of production. Import 16 cents and 40% self-use are the same assumptions as the hypothetical household; only the import price escalates in the main column. The utility credits exports on the monthly bill, but this model books each year's credits at year end, so payback in this row can be up to one year later than monthly crediting would give and can land on a whole year.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 0.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 12973.78 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 0/100)] = $830.32. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: No incentive. The listed receipts are export bill credits at the locked 5.130 cents rate on 60% of modeled production, not a program payment; no eligibility is verified. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $9,406.67. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
- Assumed receipt at end of year 1: $399.33
- Assumed receipt at end of year 2: $397.34
- Assumed receipt at end of year 3: $395.35
- Assumed receipt at end of year 4: $393.37
- Assumed receipt at end of year 5: $391.41
- Assumed receipt at end of year 6: $389.45
- Assumed receipt at end of year 7: $387.50
- Assumed receipt at end of year 8: $385.56
- Assumed receipt at end of year 9: $383.64
- Assumed receipt at end of year 10: $381.72
- Assumed receipt at end of year 11: $379.81
- Assumed receipt at end of year 12: $377.91
- Assumed receipt at end of year 13: $376.02
- Assumed receipt at end of year 14: $374.14
- Assumed receipt at end of year 15: $372.27
- Assumed receipt at end of year 16: $370.41
- Assumed receipt at end of year 17: $368.56
- Assumed receipt at end of year 18: $366.71
- Assumed receipt at end of year 19: $364.88
- Assumed receipt at end of year 20: $363.06
- Assumed receipt at end of year 21: $361.24
- Assumed receipt at end of year 22: $359.43
- Assumed receipt at end of year 23: $357.64
- Assumed receipt at end of year 24: $355.85
- Assumed receipt at end of year 25: $354.07
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 20% lower production — no incentives
Same prices, self-use share and cost as the hypothetical household, with first-year production 10379.02 kWh instead of 12973.78 kWh. Roof direction, shading and location within the state can move production by this much. At the same production the retail-value benchmark gives 12.5 years (15.0 years at flat prices).
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10379.02 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 6/100)] = $1,037.90. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 20% higher production — no incentives
Same prices, self-use share and cost as the hypothetical household, with first-year production 15568.53 kWh instead of 12973.78 kWh. Roof direction, shading and location within the state can move production by this much. At the same production the retail-value benchmark gives 8.8 years (9.9 years at flat prices).
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 40%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 15568.53 × [(40/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 40/100) × 6/100)] = $1,556.85. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Formula and modeling limitations · Use the editable calculator below to test your own cash price and energy split. It cannot confirm utility enrollment or tax eligibility.
Assumptions behind the Arizona retail-value benchmark
A common full-retail comparison, not an address-specific forecast. Size alone does not change payback when cash cost and production both scale proportionally. Use the worksheet to vary cash price, production, self-consumption, export value and recurring costs.
- System modeled
- 7 kW DC
- Assumed installed cost
- $22,400 (assumed $3.20/W DC)
- Annual production, year 1
- 12,974 kWh
- Production basis
- NSRDB daily sunlight on a 20° south-facing panel at Arizona's 2020 Census population center (6.51 kWh/m²/day, via PVWatts v8). Annual production = system kW × this input × 365 × assumed performance ratio. PVWatts' own modelled AC output for the same request is 1,749.7 kWh per kW, or 12,248 kWh for 7 kW, so this shortcut runs 5.9% above it; on the PVWatts figure the benchmark payback would be 10.8 years.
- Performance ratio (system losses)
- 0.78
- EIA state-average retail rate
- 14.91¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average
- Panel degradation
- 0.5%/yr
- Assumed electricity price escalation
- 3.0%/yr, not a forecast
- Model horizon
- 25 years
- Federal tax credit applied
- None included in this benchmark
- State or utility incentives applied
- None deducted in this benchmark. Where a household scenario above applies a published tariff rate or a conditional receipt, its row says so; this benchmark applies none of them
- Assumed value of all production
- Full retail rate, including exports; not a utility tariff lookup
- Recurring operating costs applied
- None in this benchmark; editable in worksheet
How the payback figure reconciles
- Modelled $22,400 ÷ modelled $1,934 of year-one savings = 11.6 years — the straight division, if electricity prices never move and the panels never age.
- With 0.5%/yr degradation and prices held flat: 11.9 years.
- With the same degradation and electricity prices rising 3.0%/yr: 10.3 years — the retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast.
- Production stress test, same assumed prices: 20% less production (shading, a poorer roof angle) gives 12.5 years; 20% more production gives 8.8 years. This is a what-if range, not a confidence interval.
These price-growth rates are assumptions, not forecasts of your utility's tariff. None of these cases models financing, taxes, battery dispatch or actual utility settlement. No crossing within 25 years does not establish a crossing later. Full wording on the methodology.
Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (
Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See
full disclaimer.