State analysis · source documents checked 2026-09-24
Solar payback in New Jersey (NJ) — 2026
New Jersey's residential ADI incentive is 77 dollars per MWh for registrations received on or after July 27, 2026; it is not an upfront tax credit.
What decides the answer in New Jersey
NJBPU's order dated May 21, 2026 in Docket Nos. QO20020184 and QO26030096 directs the residential ADI incentive to fall from 85 to 77 dollars per MWh for registrations received on or after July 27, 2026. The program administrator records the order's effective date as May 28, 2026 and the separate incentive-change date as July 27. The adopted order does not show that a particular installation has a reservation. [1] [2]
The ADI page distinguishes net-metered residential projects from non-residential and community solar, and requires program acceptance before permission to operate, subject to the stated petition process. For Energy Year 2027 it allocates a 300 MW block to net-metered residential projects of all sizes and accepts registrations first come, first served “until the MW block for that market segment is fully subscribed or June 1, 2027, whichever occurs first”; there is no waiting list once a block is full. Residential registrations submitted on or before July 27, 2026 but processed on or after that date had 7 business days to cure minor issues; uncured registrations, and those with major issues, are rejected and lose the higher 85-dollar level. Remaining capacity, which the administrator posts on the ADI portal, and this household's qualification are not verified here. Preserve the acceptance letter, received-status date, certificate ownership and payment arrangement. A quoted incentive is not money received at installation. [2]
The illustration below pays a conditional production incentive as end-year receipts rather than deducting fifteen years of anticipated certificates from the cash price. The per-MWh rate is the published residential level. The fifteen-year receipt schedule follows the term NJBPU Staff used in the order's economic modeling (incentive needs were estimated “with an incentive term of 15 years”); that is a modeling basis, not a finding about this household's eligible years. Production, eligibility and receipt timing remain scenario assumptions, not an eligibility determination. Compare the no-incentive row with the one-year receipt delay. [1] [2]
The same order reports New Jersey cost and yield figures that are less favorable than this site's generic benchmark. For its representative 9.8 kW residential project, Staff states “Total installed capital cost was increased from $3.51 per watt to $3.66 per watt”, the average reported cost among about 17,000 residential projects granted conditional acceptance between July 2025 and March 2026, and uses a year-one yield of 1,280 kWh per kW, which it compares with PJM-GATS generation data. The benchmark on this page assumes 3.20 dollars per watt and about 1,386 kWh per kW. Re-running this site's model with the order's two figures on the same 7 kW array (25,620 dollars; 8,960 kWh in year one), keeping the 19.34-cent historical retail price, 0.5% degradation and 3% escalation, gives a modeled payback of 12.7 years (15.3 at flat prices) instead of 10.6 (12.3). Adding the conditional 77-dollar ADI receipts for fifteen years to that recalculation gives 10.0 years (11.0 at flat prices). These are this site's recalculations with the order's inputs, not the order's own results or a quote. [1]
How New Jersey pays for an exported kilowatt-hour
Net metering, subject to eligible charges and surplus settlement. The NJ Clean Energy Program's net-metering page says customers receive full retail credit over a year, and that “At the end of an annualized period, the customer-generator will receive credit on their utility bill at the wholesale value of electricity for any excess generation that remains.” A system's capacity also cannot exceed the customer's annual electric needs. In household rows that credit exports at the import price, the self-use split has no arithmetic effect. The annual true-up row in the table below instead assumes a share of production is left over at the anniversary and credits it at an assumed below-retail value; neither the share nor the rate is a utility tariff or PJM price. Keep ADI certificate receipts separate from bill credits.
NJBPU three-year ADI review order — Adopted residential incentive, the 15-year modeling term, and the reported NJ cost and yield inputs.
Document: Docket Nos. QO20020184 / QO26030096, order dated May 21, 2026, Agenda item 8C; Staff economic modeling (p. 7) and Board findings (p. 16). Effective/source period: Order dated May 21, 2026, effective May 28, 2026 per the administrator; residential reduction July 27, 2026.
Applies to: Net-metered residential ADI registrations received on/after July 27, 2026; modeling inputs describe Staff's representative project. Relevant passage: “from $85 per MWh to $77 per MWh, for all registrations received on or after July 27, 2026”.
Document: Incentive Values; Eligibility Requirements; Energy Year 2027 Capacity Block. Effective/source period: Residential incentive table specifies July 27, 2026; EY2027 block open until fully subscribed or June 1, 2027.
Applies to: ADI net-metered residential segment (all sizes); different rows govern other project types. Relevant passage: “until the MW block for that market segment is fully subscribed or June 1, 2027, whichever occurs first”.
Document: Net Metering in New Jersey; Eligibility for Interconnection and Net Metering (N.J.A.C. 14:8-4.3 referenced). Effective/source period: Page retrieved September 24, 2026; no new effective date asserted.
Applies to: Customer-generators of NJBPU-regulated utilities (PSE&G, JCP&L, Atlantic City Electric, Rockland Electric) and their suppliers. Relevant passage: “At the end of an annualized period, the customer-generator will receive credit on their utility bill at the wholesale value of electricity for any excess generation that remains.”.
“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.
Common retail-value benchmark — not a household forecast
No incentives; every modeled kWh is valued at the historical state-average retail price. The household scenarios below separate assumed import/export prices, consumption share, cash cost and receipt timing.
How New Jersey compares with the other 50 records in this dataset
Measure
New Jersey
Dataset median
Rank of 51
Avg residential rate
19.34¢/kWh
14.91¢/kWh
11th highest
NSRDB daily sunlight (one location per state)
4.9 kWh/m²/day
4.9 kWh/m²/day
29th highest
Retail benchmark payback
10.6 years
13.0 years
12th fastest on this benchmark
Household scenarios below (range)
8.1 years to 12.7 years
—
Not ranked across states
The rank compares every state on the same full-retail basis; it is a benchmark, not a forecast for a new New Jersey customer. The household scenarios below, each with its own stated import price, export credit, cost and incentive timing, give 8.1 years to 12.7 years.
Rate: Calendar year 2024 annual average, from the EIA. Sunlight is NSRDB data via NLR PVWatts v8 at each state's 2020 Census center of population, one location per state (request settings and the values PVWatts returned are in state-insolation-pvwatts.json). Ranks and medians are computed across the 50 states and DC in this dataset. Every input behind the payback figure is printed in the assumptions block below, and the full 51-row table is at /states.
Reproduce the New Jersey household comparisons
These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 9705.42 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.
The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.
Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.
Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.
Scenario
Initial cash cost
Year 1 energy value
Year 1 net cash incl. receipts
Payback
Flat-price payback
25-year net cash after cost
Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,877.03
$1,877.03
10.6 years
12.3 years
Modeled $41,590.69
Hypothetical household — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,877.03
$1,877.03
10.6 years
12.3 years
Modeled $41,590.69
Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
$26,880.00
$1,877.03
$1,877.03
12.4 years
14.8 years
Modeled $37,110.69
Conditional production incentive — year-end receipts
$22,400.00
$1,877.03
$2,624.35
8.1 years
9.0 years
Modeled $52,416.49
Conditional production incentive — receipts delayed one year
$22,400.00
$1,877.03
$1,877.03
8.4 years
9.0 years
Modeled $52,416.49
Assumed 15% of production left at the annual true-up — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,653.71
$1,653.71
11.8 years
14.0 years
Modeled $33,977.32
NJBPU order's reported cost and yield — no incentives
$25,620.00
$1,732.86
$1,732.86
12.7 years
15.3 years
Modeled $33,455.90
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(100/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,877.03. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Hypothetical household — no incentives
Usage price assumed equal to the 19.34-cent EIA 2024 New Jersey average that the benchmark row uses, with exports offsetting imports at retail over the year. Because import equals export, the 50% self-use figure has no effect and this row gives the same result as the benchmark; it is the no-incentive baseline for the rows below. The annual-surplus row tests what is left at the true-up, and the NJBPU-inputs row uses the cost and yield reported in the May 21, 2026 order.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(50/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,877.03. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
Same production, prices, consumption share and fees, but cash cost is 20% higher; not a market-price estimate.
Assumed initial cash cost $26,880.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(50/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,877.03. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Conditional production incentive — year-end receipts
Published unit incentive applied only conditionally to hypothetical eligible production. Actual program payments may be monthly/quarterly; this annual model aggregates at year end and omits income-tax effects. Delay shifts the same earned receipts rather than creating an extra earning year.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(50/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,877.03. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: 77 dollars/MWh × modeled degraded production, 15 assumed eligible production years (the 15-year incentive term NJBPU Staff used in the economic modeling in the May 21, 2026 order); 0-year receipt delay. Qualification is NOT verified. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $10,825.80. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
Assumed receipt at end of year 1: $747.32
Assumed receipt at end of year 2: $743.58
Assumed receipt at end of year 3: $739.86
Assumed receipt at end of year 4: $736.16
Assumed receipt at end of year 5: $732.48
Assumed receipt at end of year 6: $728.82
Assumed receipt at end of year 7: $725.18
Assumed receipt at end of year 8: $721.55
Assumed receipt at end of year 9: $717.94
Assumed receipt at end of year 10: $714.35
Assumed receipt at end of year 11: $710.78
Assumed receipt at end of year 12: $707.23
Assumed receipt at end of year 13: $703.69
Assumed receipt at end of year 14: $700.17
Assumed receipt at end of year 15: $696.67
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Conditional production incentive — receipts delayed one year
Published unit incentive applied only conditionally to hypothetical eligible production. Actual program payments may be monthly/quarterly; this annual model aggregates at year end and omits income-tax effects. Delay shifts the same earned receipts rather than creating an extra earning year.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(50/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,877.03. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: 77 dollars/MWh × modeled degraded production, 15 assumed eligible production years (the 15-year incentive term NJBPU Staff used in the economic modeling in the May 21, 2026 order); 1-year receipt delay. Qualification is NOT verified. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $10,825.80. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
Assumed receipt at end of year 2: $747.32
Assumed receipt at end of year 3: $743.58
Assumed receipt at end of year 4: $739.86
Assumed receipt at end of year 5: $736.16
Assumed receipt at end of year 6: $732.48
Assumed receipt at end of year 7: $728.82
Assumed receipt at end of year 8: $725.18
Assumed receipt at end of year 9: $721.55
Assumed receipt at end of year 10: $717.94
Assumed receipt at end of year 11: $714.35
Assumed receipt at end of year 12: $710.78
Assumed receipt at end of year 13: $707.23
Assumed receipt at end of year 14: $703.69
Assumed receipt at end of year 15: $700.17
Assumed receipt at end of year 16: $696.67
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Assumed 15% of production left at the annual true-up — no incentives
NJ Clean Energy's net-metering page says: “At the end of an annualized period, the customer-generator will receive credit on their utility bill at the wholesale value of electricity for any excess generation that remains.” This row ASSUMES 15% of production is left over at the true-up and credits it at an assumed 4 cents; both are assumptions, not a utility tariff value. The other 85% keeps the 19.34-cent retail value; in this row the self-use field means that retail-valued share.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 4.000¢/kWh; self-use 85%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 9705.42 × [(85/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 85/100) × 4/100)] = $1,653.71. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: NJBPU order's reported cost and yield — no incentives
NJBPU's order dated May 21, 2026 (Docket Nos. QO20020184 and QO26030096) describes Staff's residential model: installed capital cost was raised from 3.51 to 3.66 dollars per watt, “the average reported project cost among approximately 17,000 residential projects granted conditional acceptance by the program registration manager between July 2025 and March 2026”, and Staff used “a year 1 energy yield of the representative project of 1,280 kWh/kW” for a 9.8 kW DC project with 20% DC losses. This row applies those two figures to the same 7 kW array: a cash price of 25,620.00 dollars and 8960.00 kWh in year one, with the same 19.34-cent price, degradation and escalation. They are the order's statewide averages, not a quote or a production estimate for a particular roof.
Assumed initial cash cost $25,620.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 19.340¢/kWh; export 19.340¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 8960.00 × [(50/100 × 19.34/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 19.34/100)] = $1,732.86. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Formula and modeling limitations · Use the editable calculator below to test your own cash price and energy split. It cannot confirm utility enrollment or tax eligibility.
Assumptions behind the New Jersey retail-value benchmark
A common full-retail comparison, not an address-specific forecast. Size alone does not change payback when cash cost and production both scale proportionally. Use the worksheet to vary cash price, production, self-consumption, export value and recurring costs.
System modeled
7 kW DC
Assumed installed cost
$22,400 (assumed $3.20/W DC)
Annual production, year 1
9,705 kWh
Production basis
NSRDB daily sunlight on a 20° south-facing panel at New Jersey's 2020 Census population center (4.87 kWh/m²/day, via PVWatts v8). Annual production = system kW × this input × 365 × assumed performance ratio. PVWatts' own modelled AC output for the same request is 1,362.5 kWh per kW, or 9,538 kWh for 7 kW, so this shortcut runs 1.8% above it; on the PVWatts figure the benchmark payback would be 10.7 years.
Performance ratio (system losses)
0.78
EIA state-average retail rate
19.34¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average
Panel degradation
0.5%/yr
Assumed electricity price escalation
3.0%/yr, not a forecast
Model horizon
25 years
Federal tax credit applied
None included in this benchmark
State or utility incentives applied
None deducted in this benchmark. Where a household scenario above applies a published tariff rate or a conditional receipt, its row says so; this benchmark applies none of them
Assumed value of all production
Full retail rate, including exports; not a utility tariff lookup
Recurring operating costs applied
None in this benchmark; editable in worksheet
How the payback figure reconciles
Modelled $22,400 ÷ modelled $1,877 of year-one savings = 11.9 years — the straight division, if electricity prices never move and the panels never age.
With 0.5%/yr degradation and prices held flat: 12.3 years.
With the same degradation and electricity prices rising 3.0%/yr: 10.6 years — the retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast.
Production stress test, same assumed prices: 20% less production (shading, a poorer roof angle) gives 12.8 years; 20% more production gives 9.0 years. This is a what-if range, not a confidence interval.
These price-growth rates are assumptions, not forecasts of your utility's tariff. None of these cases models financing, taxes, battery dispatch or actual utility settlement. No crossing within 25 years does not establish a crossing later. Full wording on the methodology.
Solar cash-flow worksheet
Compare assumed cash flows, not an address-specific forecast. No tariff, roof or incentive eligibility is looked up. Your worksheet entries are calculated in this browser; the worksheet does not send them anywhere or save them between visits. The site also loads Google advertising code; the privacy page explains what that code may collect and your choices.
Starting retail rate: 19.34¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average (New Jersey), from EIA Table 2.10. It is not your current tariff. All cost, export, usage, escalation and incentive entries are assumptions.
With no incentives or recurring costs, fixed cost/W and proportional generation mean that increasing size scales cost and savings equally: payback years cancel out. Unedited price and production follow that rule here. Once you edit either, it stays fixed when size changes; update it deliberately. Different cash prices, shading/production and export shares can change payback.
Optional assumed cash incentives — zero by default
No federal, state or utility incentive is inferred. Check eligibility and actual receipt timing. Recurring and delayed incentives arrive at year end; do not enter the same benefit in multiple fields. Operating cash is approximated uniformly within each year.
Your entered scenario — modelled, not a quote
Modelled installed cash price
$22,400
Modelled initial outlay after upfront rebate
$22,400
Modelled year-one net cash, including receipts/costs
$1,877
Modelled first cash-flow break-even
10.6 years
Modelled 25-year net cash after initial outlay
$41,591
Modelled production in year one
9,705 kWh
Modelled year-one energy value before costs/incentives: $1,877.
No break-even inside 25 years means the model never crosses within its horizon; it does not predict a later crossing. This is undiscounted cash flow, not investment return. A first crossing can reverse if later operating costs exceed cash benefits. Financing, taxes, changing export rules, time-of-use settlement, credit expiry and battery dispatch are not simulated.
Assumed price-escalation sensitivity
Same entered inputs, degradation and nominal fixed costs; only import/export price escalation changes. These are scenarios, not forecasts.
0%/year: 12.3 years
3%/year: 10.6 years
6%/year: 9.4 years
Separate common retail-value benchmark
This comparison uses 7 kW, assumed $3.20/W, production from the state's one-location NSRDB sunlight input and 19.34¢/kWh (Calendar year 2024 annual average) for every kWh. It ignores your entered cash price, production, tariff, costs and incentives; assumes 0.5% degradation and 3% escalation. It is not an address forecast.
Benchmark assumed cash price
$22,400
Benchmark modelled year-one value
$1,877
Benchmark modelled break-even
10.6 years
Reproduce the 25-year modelled cash flows for your entered scenario
Annual cash = degraded production × weighted import/export price × price-escalation factor − annual fixed cost + eligible year-end receipts. Cumulative cash starts at negative initial outlay. Incentives after year 25 are excluded.
Use your utility tariff and a site-specific production assessment to refine inputs. Methodology and limitations.
Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See full disclaimer.
Compare every state
New Jersey is one of 17 jurisdictions with a written analysis on this site: 16 states and the District of Columbia. The rate, sunlight, modeled payback and recorded incentives for all 50 states and DC — including those without a page — are in one sortable table.