State analysis · source documents checked 2026-09-24
Solar payback in Texas (TX) — 2026
In Texas customer-choice areas, a solar owner who sells exports sells them to the retail electric provider at a value both agree to; in areas without customer choice the serving utility buys them at a value consistent with PUCT rule 25.242. Interconnection is a separate process with the utility.
What decides the answer in Texas
PUCT rule 25.217, project 39797, effective June 11, 2012, makes the distinction explicit. Section (f)(2) says a distributed renewable generation owner in a customer-choice area sells outflows to the REP serving the premises at a mutually agreed value. It does not set a statewide retail export credit. Section (f)(1) treats non-choice areas differently, referring to rule 25.242. [1]
Under section (c)(4), interconnection is requested by application to the electric utility on a commission-approved form, processed under rules 25.211 and 25.212. Section (c)(1) says the utility shall permit interconnection when, among other conditions, the owner gives proof of an original manufacturer's warranty against breakdown or undue degradation for at least five years. A retail buyback contract does not replace that process. Rule (a) excludes river authorities that are electric utilities. [1]
A practical order of checks. First, find the delivery utility named on your bill. Second, in a customer-choice area, ask the retail electric provider for its written buyback terms: under (f)(2) a solar owner who chooses to sell exports sells them to that provider at a value both agree to, and the rule sets no price. Third, in an area without customer choice, (f)(1) says the serving utility buys all exports at a value consistent with rule 25.242, so ask that utility for its tariff. This page does not establish the export terms of any municipal utility, cooperative or other non-choice utility, and it does not pick a rate from a Texas-wide average. [1]
In Oncor delivery territory only, Oncor's Residential Solar Program describes incentives that Oncor pays to approved participating service providers for new photovoltaic systems installed with energy storage back-up. Sites with an existing solar array are excluded, the maximum system size is 15 kW DC, and the customer must sign an Interconnection Agreement with Oncor. Oncor says the incentive depends on the system's size, azimuth and other factors and that these residential programs typically run from February through November each year. Current funding and a household amount were not established here, so no Oncor incentive is subtracted below. The same page sends customers to their retail electric provider for any excess-generation credit, and Oncor's FAQ says it reprograms the meter to send measured surplus generation to that provider: the delivery-utility and retail-provider split described above. [5] [6]
Read the Electricity Facts Label and buyback terms together: import energy price, delivery charges, export price, monthly fees, credit caps, expiration and surplus payout can change the answer. The household rows use a round assumed 16-cent import price and 6-cent export price, not a named plan or Electricity Facts Label, with and without an added annual fee; no retail provider's buyback price was checked for this page. The import figure sits above the 14.94-cent EIA 2024 statewide residential average, and at 14.94 cents the no-incentive household pays back in about 16.2 years instead of about 15.5. Texas Tax Code section 11.27 exempts from property tax the appraised value that an on-site solar device adds to real property. The Comptroller's guidelines say the exemption is not automatic: the owner files Form 50-123 with the appraisal district, not the Comptroller, on or before April 30, and once allowed it need not be refiled each year until ownership or qualification changes. An avoided property tax is not a cash rebate to subtract from the purchase price, and no property-tax saving is modeled here. [2] [3] [4]
How Texas pays for an exported kilowatt-hour
Utility tariff or retail-provider contract. In Texas it depends on whether the area has retail customer choice: in a choice area, a solar owner who chooses to sell exports sells them to the retail electric provider at a value both agree to (25.217(f)(2)); in an area without customer choice, the serving utility buys them (25.217(f)(1)). An uncapped flat export price is only a scenario. A plan that limits credits to imports, reprices at wholesale or expires monthly needs a month-by-month calculation. Do not use this annual model to promise its savings.
PUCT rule 25.217 — Contract-set outflow compensation in choice areas, utility purchase under 25.242 elsewhere, and separate utility interconnection.
Document: Distributed Renewable Generation; project 39797; (a), (c)(1), (c)(4), (f)(1)–(2). Effective/source period: June 11, 2012, as printed in the retrieved rule.
Applies to: DRG owners/REPs and electric utilities within rule (a); river authorities excluded. Relevant passage: “at a value to which both parties agree”.
Document: Tax Code Chapter 11, Section 11.27, Solar and Wind-Powered Energy Devices; subsection (a). Effective/source period: Added effective January 1, 1982; last amended by Acts 2021, S.B. 63, effective September 1, 2021.
Applies to: Owners of solar or wind-powered devices primarily for on-site energy use. Relevant passage: “A person is entitled to an exemption from taxation of the amount of appraised value of real property owned by the person that arises from the installation or construction on the property of a solar or wind-powered energy device that is primarily for production and distribution of energy for on-site use.”.
Document: Solar and Wind-Powered Energy Device Exemption and Appraisal Guidelines (May 2022); Exemption Administration. Effective/source period: May 2022 edition, issued under Tax Code 11.27(b).
Applies to: Property owners applying to their county appraisal district. Relevant passage: “These exemptions are not automatic.”.
Document: Form 50-123, Exemption Application for Solar or Wind-Powered Energy Devices (revision 12-21/15). Effective/source period: Form revision 12-21/15; confirm the current version before filing.
Applies to: Property owners claiming the Section 11.27 exemption. Relevant passage: “File this form and all supporting documentation with the appraisal district office in each county in which the property is located.”.
Document: Residential Solar Program requirements. Effective/source period: No program-year effective date stated; retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: Oncor electric-delivery customers installing a new PV system with energy storage back-up, maximum 15 kW DC. Relevant passage: “Maximum system size is 15 kW DC.”.
Oncor interconnection FAQ — Interconnection agreement, permission to operate and surplus data sent to the retail provider.
Document: Renewable generation interconnection FAQ. Effective/source period: No effective date stated; retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: Oncor delivery customers with on-site generation. Relevant passage: “Oncor provides a Permission To Operate (PTO) letter to both the customer and the installer.”.
“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.
Common retail-value benchmark — not a household forecast
No incentives; every modeled kWh is valued at the historical state-average retail price. The household scenarios below separate assumed import/export prices, consumption share, cash cost and receipt timing.
How Texas compares with the other 50 records in this dataset
Measure
Texas
Dataset median
Rank of 51
Avg residential rate
14.94¢/kWh
14.91¢/kWh
24th highest
NSRDB daily sunlight (one location per state)
5.5 kWh/m²/day
4.9 kWh/m²/day
7th highest
Retail benchmark payback
12.0 years
13.0 years
17th fastest on this benchmark
Household scenarios below (range)
13.0 years to 18.1 years
—
Not ranked across states
The rank compares every state on the same full-retail basis; it is a benchmark, not a forecast for a new Texas customer. The household scenarios below, each with its own stated import price, export credit, cost and incentive timing, give 13.0 years to 18.1 years.
Rate: Calendar year 2024 annual average, from the EIA. Sunlight is NSRDB data via NLR PVWatts v8 at each state's 2020 Census center of population, one location per state (request settings and the values PVWatts returned are in state-insolation-pvwatts.json). Ranks and medians are computed across the 50 states and DC in this dataset. Every input behind the payback figure is printed in the assumptions block below, and the full 51-row table is at /states.
Reproduce the Texas household comparisons
These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 10921.09 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.
The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.
Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.
Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.
Scenario
Initial cash cost
Year 1 energy value
Year 1 net cash incl. receipts
Payback
Flat-price payback
25-year net cash after cost
Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,631.61
$1,631.61
12.0 years
14.2 years
Modeled $33,224.04
Hypothetical household — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,201.32
$1,201.32
15.5 years
19.5 years
Modeled $18,554.78
Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
$26,880.00
$1,201.32
$1,201.32
18.0 years
23.7 years
Modeled $14,074.78
Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives
$22,400.00
$1,474.35
$1,474.35
13.0 years
15.8 years
Modeled $27,862.69
Assumed buyback plan with added annual fee
$22,400.00
$1,201.32
$1,021.32
17.3 years
23.4 years
Modeled $14,054.78
Oncor territory: storage-required program case, incentive amount unknown
$32,400.00
$1,436.54
$1,436.54
18.1 years
23.9 years
Modeled $16,573.90
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives
Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 14.940¢/kWh; export 14.940¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10921.09 × [(100/100 × 14.94/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 14.94/100)] = $1,631.61. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Hypothetical household — no incentives
Round assumed prices, not a named plan or Electricity Facts Label: a 16-cent import price, above the 14.94-cent EIA 2024 Texas average that the benchmark uses, and an uncapped 6-cent retail-provider buyback. No actual plan, contract renewal or monthly cap is simulated.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10921.09 × [(50/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 6/100)] = $1,201.32. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives
Same production, prices, consumption share and fees, but cash cost is 20% higher; not a market-price estimate.
Assumed initial cash cost $26,880.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10921.09 × [(50/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 6/100)] = $1,201.32. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Illustrative 75% self-use — no incentives
Assumes a different load profile serves 75% of production on site without added equipment cost. This is a sensitivity, not a promised behavioral saving.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 75%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10921.09 × [(75/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 75/100) × 6/100)] = $1,474.35. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Assumed buyback plan with added annual fee
Same import/export prices and production, with 180 dollars of incremental annual fees; not an offered plan.
Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 50%; incremental fixed annual cost $180.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10921.09 × [(50/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 50/100) × 6/100)] = $1,201.32. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Oncor territory: storage-required program case, incentive amount unknown
Oncor's Residential Solar Program pays incentives “to approved participating service providers”, requires homes with Oncor as the delivery provider to “install with an energy storage back-up system”, sets “Maximum system size is 15 kW DC”, and says the incentive “is dependent on the size, azimuth and other factors of the installed system”. No amount is published, so none is modeled; ask the provider to show it in the contract price. This row varies only the equipment, with the same assumed prices as the hypothetical household. The battery is assumed to store 25.64% of production that would otherwise be exported, so that 75% of the energy delivered is used at home instead of 50% of production. An ASSUMED 90% round-trip efficiency is applied to the stored energy: 2.56% of production is lost, so modeled first-year energy is 10641.06 kWh instead of 10921.09 kWh. The added storage cost of 10,000.00 dollars is an assumed sensitivity value, not a quote; with every other input unchanged, an added cost of 5,000.00 dollars gives 15.8 years (20.0 years at flat prices) and 15,000.00 dollars gives 20.3 years (no break-even inside 25 years at flat prices). No dispatch schedule, time-of-use value, battery degradation, replacement or outage value is modeled.
Assumed initial cash cost $32,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 16.000¢/kWh; export 6.000¢/kWh; self-use 75%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.
Year-one modeled energy value = 10641.06 × [(75/100 × 16/100) + ((1 − 75/100) × 6/100)] = $1,436.54. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.
Incentive basis: None modeled: Oncor's incentive is paid to the service provider and its amount is not published. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.
The exact input fields and all 25 modelled years for this row are in the JSON download above.
Formula and modeling limitations · Use the editable calculator below to test your own cash price and energy split. It cannot confirm utility enrollment or tax eligibility.
Assumptions behind the Texas retail-value benchmark
A common full-retail comparison, not an address-specific forecast. Size alone does not change payback when cash cost and production both scale proportionally. Use the worksheet to vary cash price, production, self-consumption, export value and recurring costs.
System modeled
7 kW DC
Assumed installed cost
$22,400 (assumed $3.20/W DC)
Annual production, year 1
10,921 kWh
Production basis
NSRDB daily sunlight on a 20° south-facing panel at Texas's 2020 Census population center (5.48 kWh/m²/day, via PVWatts v8). Annual production = system kW × this input × 365 × assumed performance ratio. PVWatts' own modelled AC output for the same request is 1,507.4 kWh per kW, or 10,552 kWh for 7 kW, so this shortcut runs 3.5% above it; on the PVWatts figure the benchmark payback would be 12.3 years.
Performance ratio (system losses)
0.78
EIA state-average retail rate
14.94¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average
Panel degradation
0.5%/yr
Assumed electricity price escalation
3.0%/yr, not a forecast
Model horizon
25 years
Federal tax credit applied
None included in this benchmark
State or utility incentives applied
None deducted in this benchmark. Where a household scenario above applies a published tariff rate or a conditional receipt, its row says so; this benchmark applies none of them
Assumed value of all production
Full retail rate, including exports; not a utility tariff lookup
Recurring operating costs applied
None in this benchmark; editable in worksheet
How the payback figure reconciles
Modelled $22,400 ÷ modelled $1,632 of year-one savings = 13.7 years — the straight division, if electricity prices never move and the panels never age.
With 0.5%/yr degradation and prices held flat: 14.2 years.
With the same degradation and electricity prices rising 3.0%/yr: 12.0 years — the retail-value benchmark, not a household forecast.
Production stress test, same assumed prices: 20% less production (shading, a poorer roof angle) gives 14.5 years; 20% more production gives 10.2 years. This is a what-if range, not a confidence interval.
These price-growth rates are assumptions, not forecasts of your utility's tariff. None of these cases models financing, taxes, battery dispatch or actual utility settlement. No crossing within 25 years does not establish a crossing later. Full wording on the methodology.
Solar cash-flow worksheet
Compare assumed cash flows, not an address-specific forecast. No tariff, roof or incentive eligibility is looked up. Your worksheet entries are calculated in this browser; the worksheet does not send them anywhere or save them between visits. The site also loads Google advertising code; the privacy page explains what that code may collect and your choices.
Starting retail rate: 14.94¢/kWh — Calendar year 2024 annual average (Texas), from EIA Table 2.10. It is not your current tariff. All cost, export, usage, escalation and incentive entries are assumptions.
With no incentives or recurring costs, fixed cost/W and proportional generation mean that increasing size scales cost and savings equally: payback years cancel out. Unedited price and production follow that rule here. Once you edit either, it stays fixed when size changes; update it deliberately. Different cash prices, shading/production and export shares can change payback.
Optional assumed cash incentives — zero by default
No federal, state or utility incentive is inferred. Check eligibility and actual receipt timing. Recurring and delayed incentives arrive at year end; do not enter the same benefit in multiple fields. Operating cash is approximated uniformly within each year.
Your entered scenario — modelled, not a quote
Modelled installed cash price
$22,400
Modelled initial outlay after upfront rebate
$22,400
Modelled year-one net cash, including receipts/costs
$1,632
Modelled first cash-flow break-even
12.0 years
Modelled 25-year net cash after initial outlay
$33,224
Modelled production in year one
10,921 kWh
Modelled year-one energy value before costs/incentives: $1,632.
No break-even inside 25 years means the model never crosses within its horizon; it does not predict a later crossing. This is undiscounted cash flow, not investment return. A first crossing can reverse if later operating costs exceed cash benefits. Financing, taxes, changing export rules, time-of-use settlement, credit expiry and battery dispatch are not simulated.
Assumed price-escalation sensitivity
Same entered inputs, degradation and nominal fixed costs; only import/export price escalation changes. These are scenarios, not forecasts.
0%/year: 14.2 years
3%/year: 12.0 years
6%/year: 10.5 years
Separate common retail-value benchmark
This comparison uses 7 kW, assumed $3.20/W, production from the state's one-location NSRDB sunlight input and 14.94¢/kWh (Calendar year 2024 annual average) for every kWh. It ignores your entered cash price, production, tariff, costs and incentives; assumes 0.5% degradation and 3% escalation. It is not an address forecast.
Benchmark assumed cash price
$22,400
Benchmark modelled year-one value
$1,632
Benchmark modelled break-even
12.0 years
Reproduce the 25-year modelled cash flows for your entered scenario
Annual cash = degraded production × weighted import/export price × price-escalation factor − annual fixed cost + eligible year-end receipts. Cumulative cash starts at negative initial outlay. Incentives after year 25 are excluded.
Use your utility tariff and a site-specific production assessment to refine inputs. Methodology and limitations.
Estimate only. State comparisons are common retail-value benchmarks, not forecasts for your roof. Custom scenarios depend on the cash price, production, import/export prices, self-consumption and other assumptions entered. They are not quotes or guarantees. Listed incentives do not establish eligibility or a payment date. The Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D, the 30% federal tax credit) expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. Verify all numbers with a licensed installer and your utility before making a purchase decision. See full disclaimer.
Compare every state
Texas is one of 17 jurisdictions with a written analysis on this site: 16 states and the District of Columbia. The rate, sunlight, modeled payback and recorded incentives for all 50 states and DC — including those without a page — are in one sortable table.