State analysis · source documents checked 2026-09-24

Solar payback in District of Columbia (DC) — 2026

A DC owner must separate electricity credits from solar-certificate sales; the statutory compliance fee caps what a certificate buyer will pay, but it is not a price.

What decides the answer in District of Columbia

Pepco's Rider NEM (District P.S.C. No. 1, Seventh Revised Page R-45, issued and effective November 8, 2023) says net energy billing applies only to kilowatt-hour usage charges. Customer and demand charges stay on the bill; for residential Schedule R the customer charge is 18.09 dollars a month in 2026 (Page R-3). A month's excess generation is credited in kWh to the next bill. At the end of the calendar year, generation above 100% of annual consumption is compensated at the generation rate only; a year-end credit above 25 dollars is refunded and a smaller one carries over. The same June 1, 2025 compilation's Rider SOS (Page R-41.1) lists residential generation charges of 12.800 cents/kWh for June–October 2025 and 13.597 cents for November 2025–May 2026. R-45 does not say that those exact figures settle a surplus, and SOS prices after May 2026 were not retrieved here. [1] [2] [3]

Two things follow. While annual production stays at or below annual use, each exported kWh offsets a later kWh at the retail usage price, so the split between self-use and export does not change the answer; any row below that uses one price for both shows the same result whatever self-use share it lists. Only production above annual use drops to the generation rate. The no-certificate rows are retail-valued comparisons, not a reproduction of every line on a Pepco bill. [1]

Solar certificates are separate, conditional income. Under DC Code § 34-1431 a renewable energy credit represents one megawatt-hour. A supplier short of solar credits pays the compliance fee in § 34-1434(c)(3) instead: 44 cents per kWh (440 dollars per MWh) in 2026, falling two cents a year to 32 cents in 2032, 30 cents for 2033 through 2041, and ten cents (100 dollars per MWh) in 2042 and after. The fee is a practical ceiling on what a buyer will pay, not a price. The DC PSC's May 1, 2026 RPS report puts the average SREC price at roughly 407 dollars in 2025, with DC solar credits trading at around 370 dollars as of mid-April 2026. The certificate rows below assume 150 and 75 dollars per MWh. Those are round-number stress values well below the reported prices, not a forecast. Each row caps its assumed price at that production year's § 34-1434(c)(3) fee, treating model year 1 as 2026. Model years 17 to 25 fall in 2042 or later, when the fee is 100 dollars per MWh, so from model year 17 the 150-dollar row is modeled at 100 dollars per MWh and no receipt above the fee is modeled; the 75-dollar row is below the fee in every year. A third row takes the same capped 150-dollar receipts but pays each one a year late, as could happen while DC PSC certification is pending; its last production year's payment would fall after the 25-year horizon and is not counted. Nobody knows the price over 25 years. Before counting certificate income, get a written purchase offer that states the price, term, fees and who registers the system. [4] [5] [6]

Certification is a step with the DC PSC, separate from Pepco interconnection. The PSC's RPS portal says as-built construction drawings must accompany each RPS application for a solar energy system, and the report says solar credits must come from systems in the District or on a distribution feeder serving it. Eligibility rules can change: after the Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Amendment Act of 2024 (part of D.C. Law 25-217, effective September 18, 2024), the Commission's Order No. 22318 of October 24, 2024 decertified, from January 1, 2025, solar systems certified before February 1, 2011 that are neither in the District nor served by a feeder serving it. [6] [7] [8]

DOEE's Solar for All is a different route, not an add-on to an owner-funded purchase. DOEE says it partners with organizations to install solar on single-family homes and develop community solar projects for renters and residents of multi-family buildings, aimed at low- to moderate-income families, and that participants should expect a 50% saving on their electricity bill over 15 years. That is the program's own statement, not a figure checked here. The income limits sit on a separate portal (solarforall.doee.dc.gov) that could not be read without a browser in this check, so eligibility is not verified. Compare a documented Solar for All offer on its own terms, rather than assuming the household buys the modeled array and also keeps all certificates. [9]

How District of Columbia pays for an exported kilowatt-hour

Net metering, subject to eligible charges and surplus settlement. Under Rider NEM, kWh netting covers usage charges up to annual consumption; fixed charges remain and annual surplus earns the generation rate only. Omitting certificate revenue can make an eligible owner's payback longer, but adding a speculative price as guaranteed income is not a correction. The no-certificate and conditional-sales rows keep that distinction visible.

No federal residential credit is applied by default in any calculator or state benchmark on this site (Section 25D expired at the end of 2025), and the mechanics of export regimes are covered in the net metering guide.

Sources for the District of Columbia section above

Pepco Rider NEM (R-45) — Netting limited to kWh usage charges (the rider also says Net Energy Billing applies only to kilowatt-hour usage charges), monthly kWh carryforward, generation-only payment for annual surplus and the 25-dollar refund threshold.
Document: District P.S.C. No. 1, Seventh Revised Page No. R-45, Rider NEM (PDF page 73); Order No. 15837 referenced. Effective/source period: Issued November 8, 2023; usage on and after November 8, 2023.
Applies to: Pepco District customer-generators on Schedules R, MMA, GS ND and the other listed schedules; supply arrangement matters. Relevant passage: “At the end of the calendar year (December), excess generation that exceeds 100% of the annual consumption, will be compensated at the generation rate only, per kWh.”.
Pepco Schedule R (R-3) — 2026 residential customer charge that netting does not remove.
Document: Twenty-First Revised Page No. R-3, Residential Service Schedule R. Effective/source period: Usage on and after January 1, 2025; Rate Year 2 columns January 1–December 31, 2026.
Applies to: Pepco District residential customers. Relevant passage: “Customer Charge $ 17.09 per month $ 18.09 per month”.
Pepco Rider SOS (R-41.1) — Published SOS residential generation charges for June 2025–May 2026.
Document: Forty-Fourth Revised Page No. R-41.1, Standard Offer Service – Residential. Effective/source period: Usage on and after June 1, 2025; seasons through May 2026.
Applies to: Schedule R customers on Standard Offer Service (no competitive supplier). Relevant passage: “In excess of 30 kwh $ 0.09174 per kwh $ 0.10182 per kwh $ 0.12800 per kwh $ 0.13597 per kwh”.
DC Code § 34-1434 — compliance fee — Year-by-year fee ceiling: 44 cents/kWh in 2026, 30 cents 2033–2041, 10 cents from 2042.
Document: § 34-1434(c)(3), solar shortfall compliance fee schedule. Effective/source period: Current code text retrieved September 24, 2026; last amended by D.C. Law 24-314.
Applies to: Electricity suppliers short of the solar requirement. Relevant passage: “Ten cents in 2042 and thereafter”.
DC Code § 34-1431 — definitions — One credit equals one MWh, so cents/kWh fees convert to dollars/MWh.
Document: § 34-1431, definition of renewable energy credit. Effective/source period: Current code text retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: RPS credits. Relevant passage: “a credit representing one megawatt-hour of energy”.
DC PSC RPS report, compliance year 2025 — Reported 2025 average and mid-April 2026 trading level; location requirement for solar credits.
Document: Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards: A Report for Compliance Year 2025, pp. 16 and 23. Effective/source period: May 1, 2026.
Applies to: District RPS market; not a quote for any system. Relevant passage: “The average SREC price was roughly $407 in 2025, well below the compliance fee of $460 per SREC shortfall.”.
DC PSC RPS portal — Certification is a separate application with its own documents.
Document: Welcome to the RPS Portal (certification application page). Effective/source period: Retrieved September 24, 2026.
Applies to: Solar energy systems applying for DC RPS certification. Relevant passage: “Please be advised that As Built Construction Drawings must accompany each RPS application for solar energy systems.”.
DC PSC Order No. 22318 — Certificate eligibility has been changed by law before.
Document: Formal Case No. 1181, Order No. 22318, paragraph 1. Effective/source period: October 24, 2024; decertification effective January 1, 2025.
Applies to: Solar systems certified before February 1, 2011 outside the District and not on a feeder serving it. Relevant passage: “decertifies, effective January 1, 2025, all solar energy systems not located within the District of Columbia (“District”), or in a location served by a distribution feeder serving the District”.
DOEE Solar for All — A separate program route, with the program's own savings statement.
Document: Solar for All program page. Effective/source period: Retrieved September 24, 2026; household eligibility not checked.
Applies to: Low- to moderate-income families in the District. Relevant passage: “DOEE is partnering with organizations across the District to install solar on single family homes and develop community solar projects to benefit renters and residents in multi-family buildings.”.

“Source documents checked 2026-09-24” means each linked document was retrieved on that date and the passage quoted under it is the text the claims in this section rely on. The date covers only those claims. It is not a household eligibility decision or a guarantee that a tariff is still current, so check the linked live documents before signing a contract, and report corrections via the contact page.

Common retail-value benchmark — not a household forecast

No incentives; every modeled kWh is valued at the historical state-average retail price. The household scenarios below separate assumed import/export prices, consumption share, cash cost and receipt timing.

How District of Columbia compares with the other 50 records in this dataset
Measure	District of Columbia	Dataset median	Rank of 51
Avg residential rate	17.71¢/kWh	14.91¢/kWh	15th highest
NSRDB daily sunlight (one location per state)	4.9 kWh/m²/day	4.9 kWh/m²/day	24th highest
Retail benchmark payback	11.3 years	13.0 years	14th fastest on this benchmark
Household scenarios below (range)	7.0 years to 13.2 years	—	Not ranked across states

The rank compares every state on the same full-retail basis; it is a benchmark, not a forecast for a new District of Columbia customer. The household scenarios below, each with its own stated import price, export credit, cost and incentive timing, give 7.0 years to 13.2 years.

Rate: Calendar year 2024 annual average, from the EIA. Sunlight is NSRDB data via NLR PVWatts v8 at each state's 2020 Census center of population, one location per state (request settings and the values PVWatts returned are in state-insolation-pvwatts.json). Ranks and medians are computed across the 50 states and DC in this dataset. Every input behind the payback figure is printed in the assumptions block below, and the full 51-row table is at /states.

Reproduce the District of Columbia household comparisons

These are hypothetical households, not customer results or offers. All start from an assumed 7 kW array producing 9844.93 kWh in year one; any row that changes production (a battery or a production-stress row) says so. The sunlight input is NSRDB data via PVWatts v8 for one location per state (request and response in state-insolation-pvwatts.json; see the methodology), not a production estimate for your roof. No federal credit is applied. No loan, income-tax effect on incentive revenue, battery replacement or future tariff change is modeled.

The benchmark row prices every kWh at the EIA average cited above. Where another row applies a published figure (for example a tariff or rider rate or charge, a program incentive rate, a statutory fee schedule, or a tax credit's rate, cap or carryforward period), that figure comes from a document in the sources list above. Every other price, consumption share, cost, fee, receipt date and amount of tax a household can use in a year is assumed. Eligibility remains conditional. The annual split does not reproduce monthly netting, time-of-use periods, credit caps, curtailment or minimum bills. Annual fees represent incremental solar costs, not charges you would pay with or without solar.

Production degrades by assumed 0.5% per year. The main result increases both import and export prices by assumed 3% per year; the flat-price column sets that to zero. Neither escalation is a tariff forecast. Fixed fees and scheduled receipts do not escalate. Energy savings accrue uniformly within a year for interpolation; incentives arrive only at year end.

Download exact scenario inputs and all 25 yearly results (JSON)

Modeled results, not guarantees. No break-even means no crossing inside 25 years, not a calculated date beyond year 25.
Scenario	Initial cash cost	Year 1 energy value	Year 1 net cash incl. receipts	Payback	Flat-price payback	25-year net cash after cost
Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives	$22,400.00	$1,743.54	$1,743.54	11.3 years	13.2 years	Modeled $37,039.74
Hypothetical household — no incentives	$22,400.00	$1,743.54	$1,743.54	11.3 years	13.2 years	Modeled $37,039.74
Illustrative higher cash price — no incentives	$26,880.00	$1,743.54	$1,743.54	13.2 years	16.0 years	Modeled $32,559.74
Conditional certificate sales at assumed 150 dollars/MWh	$22,400.00	$1,743.54	$3,220.28	7.0 years	7.1 years	Modeled $67,817.77
Conditional certificate sales at assumed 75 dollars/MWh	$22,400.00	$1,743.54	$2,481.91	8.6 years	9.3 years	Modeled $54,432.73
Conditional certificate sales at assumed 150 dollars/MWh — first payment a year later	$22,400.00	$1,743.54	$1,743.54	7.2 years	8.0 years	Modeled $66,944.87
Assumed annual surplus settled at the generation rate — no certificates	$22,400.00	$1,662.55	$1,662.55	11.8 years	13.9 years	Modeled $34,278.86

Inputs, receipts and annual arithmetic: Common retail-value benchmark — no incentives

Historical state-average import value for ALL production; only a comparison, not an address-specific tariff.

Assumed initial cash cost $22,400.00, not reduced by any upfront credit or rebate; any receipt is listed below and arrives at year end. Import 17.710¢/kWh; export 17.710¢/kWh; self-use 100%; incremental fixed annual cost $0.00.

Year-one modeled energy value = 9844.93 × [(100/100 × 17.71/100) + ((1 − 100/100) × 17.71/100)] = $1,743.54. Subtract the annual fixed cost and add only that year's receipts for net cash. Display rounds cents; the downloadable calculation retains full precision.

Incentive basis: None; no eligibility or benefit assumed. Modeled total receipts inside 25 years: $0.00. These are not subtracted from initial cash cost.