Minnesota pays about 14.9¢ per kilowatt-hour for residential electricity and receives about 4.5 kWh per square metre per day of sunlight — 23rd and 28th respectively among the 50 states and DC tracked here. Those two numbers set the ceiling on what rooftop solar returns in Minnesota, and they point in opposite directions.
Where Minnesota sits against the rest of the country
Minnesota is 0.1¢/kWh above the median residential rate across this dataset (14.8¢/kWh) and 0.1 kWh/m²/day below the median insolation (4.6 kWh/m²/day). Under this site's standard assumptions, that combination puts Minnesota 32nd of 51 for modeled payback speed, at 14.2 years against a dataset median of 13.5 years.
What actually drives payback in Minnesota
Minnesota is rate-led: upper half of the dataset for electricity price (23rd), lower half for sunlight (28th). Swap Minnesota's sunlight for the dataset median and payback moves to 13.9 years (0.3 years of swing). Swap its electricity rate instead and payback moves to 14.3 years (0.1 years of swing). The sunlight swap is the larger of the two, so how much sun the roof gets is the input deciding the outcome in Minnesota.
State incentives on record
Recorded for Minnesota: Solar*Rewards rebates at Xcel; sales tax exemption; net metering retained; property tax exemption for residential systems under 10 kW.
No federal credit is applied above (Section 25D expired 31 December 2025), and export terms often matter more than the headline rate (net metering guide).
The modeled system, in numbers
At Minnesota's sunlight level a 7 kW array produces roughly 8,968 kWh a year, worth about $1,336 in first-year bill savings at 14.9¢/kWh against an assumed $22,400 installed cost. A ten-year payback at this sunlight level would require a residential rate of about 22.4¢/kWh, which is 7.5¢ above what Minnesota households pay today.
States with comparable economics
Minnesota's closest analogues by modeled payback are Louisiana (14.1 years), Virginia (14.0 years), Mississippi (14.4 years). They arrive there from different rate and sunlight combinations, so their incentive rows are the useful comparison.
- Louisiana — modeled payback 14.1 years
- Virginia — modeled payback 14.0 years
- Mississippi — modeled payback 14.4 years